Still not over? The market is starting to bet on “#伊朗事件 ”.

This time it’s not the media, not analysts, but the prediction market + alternative data leading the way.
What’s happening?
According to PolyBeats monitoring:
3 days ago, Trump posted a warning:
“If Iran violently suppresses peaceful protesters, the US will come to the rescue.”
And explicitly stated: “Target locked, action ready.”
An hour ago, the so-called “barometer of war news” Pizza Index showed an anomaly:
👉 surged by 1250%
In the past 24 hours:
There are 4 new accounts created this month
👉 only involved in Iran-related markets
👉 bought “The US will strike Iran this month”
👉 current market probability only 13%
The simultaneous appearance of these three signals is the key.
Why is this worth warning?
Not because of “high probability,”
but because of abnormal behavior among the bettors.
Common features of these accounts:
New addresses
Single theme (only betting on Iran)
No diversification, no hedging
Entering early during low probability
In prediction markets, this usually indicates two situations:
1️⃣ Strong confidence based on information advantage
2️⃣ Wrong but confident big gamble
Historical experience tells us:
👉 The real danger often comes from the first type.
Why is the Pizza Index important?
The Pizza Data is not mystical.
It comes from Cold War-era experience models:
When the Pentagon and intelligence agencies are in high-intensity, long-duration operation,
one of the most direct changes is—
An abnormal surge in nighttime dining orders.
In the Venezuela incident, the Pizza Index led official news by 1–2 hours;
In multiple Middle East conflicts, it has also provided early signals.
It’s not a conclusion,
but often the **first alert of “system entering an abnormal state.”**
So why are the market probabilities still so low (13%)?
Because prediction market pricing is based on **“publicly verifiable information,”**
not on **“unpublicized action plans.”**
In other words:
The market is still waiting for “evidence,”
but smart money has already started buying into “possibility.”
This is the biggest information gap window in prediction markets.
What does this mean for risk markets?
If it’s just “talking,” the impact is limited;
but if it enters a phase of substantial military preparations:
Crude oil → increased volatility
US stocks → risk appetite declines
BTC → short-term volatility, but not necessarily collapse (depends on whether it escalates into a long-term conflict)
The focus is not on whether to fight,
but on whether it happens quickly and is controllable.
Venezuela was “quick victory + weekend digestion”;
If Iran enters a tug-of-war, the nature will be completely different.
Summary in one sentence:
When you see new wallets + single market + low-probability bets + abnormal data movements,
it’s usually not “market sentiment,”
but someone pricing in a future that hasn’t happened yet.
This doesn’t mean the event will definitely occur,
but it indicates:
Some people are already buying insurance for the “worst-case scenario.”
In the coming days,
more than news, what matters is the change in prediction market capital flows.