#2026年比特币行情展望 $RIVER $ETH——I have been navigating the crypto world for 9 years, from a newbie with 20,000 yuan and munching on bread while staring at K-line charts, to now accumulating enough assets to comfortably retire. I don’t have any superhuman talent, I’ve never played insider tricks, and I’ve never relied on luck to gamble. I’ve simply stuck to a logical system that’s been criticized by fellow crypto enthusiasts as "too naive," but in the end, it became my greatest weapon.

**What is this methodology? It’s actually very simple.**

The first layer, capital management, is the foundation. Never go all-in—this is my strictest discipline. Divide your funds into 5 parts, only move one part at a time, with a single loss not exceeding 10%, and keep total risk within 2%. Even if you get it wrong five times in a row, you only lose 10%, but as soon as a real market trend starts, the gains will instantly cover all losses. Compound interest, to put it simply, is about two words: stability.

The second layer, follow the trend. Don’t rush to buy the dip during a downtrend—90% of the time, that’s a trap. When the market rises, don’t rush to sell—those are often golden pits. The biggest test isn’t technical skills, but patience. Trend trading is all about this.

The third layer, stay away from coins that surge wildly. Rapid increases look tempting, but most are just bag-holders. Whether it’s mainstream coins or small tokens, once the rise is ridiculously unreasonable, the probability of catching the falling knife is higher than making money. If you can "stay calm," you’ve already won.

The fourth layer, use technical indicators but don’t be superstitious. MACD is a good tool—when DIF and DEA cross above the zero line and break through the upper side, it’s usually a buy signal; a death cross above the zero line indicates reducing positions. The key logic for adding positions: don’t add on losses, only add when in profit. This helps avoid emotional trading as much as possible.

The fifth layer, volume is the market’s heartbeat. A volume breakout at a low point is a true signal that the trend is starting. The way to observe the trend is simple—look at whether the 3-day, 30-day, 84-day, and 120-day moving averages are turning upward. Don’t follow the crowd, don’t fantasize, only trade coins with established trends.

The last layer, review your trades. This is the dividing line between experts and retail traders. Every trade must be reviewed: Why did I buy? Where did I go wrong? Has the weekly K-line trend changed? Truly profitable traders never rely on predictions; they succeed through repeated review and adjustment.

This system may seem routine, but very few people can stick to it. The market ultimately rewards disciplined individuals—those who can stay calm amid volatility and maintain their rhythm amid noise.