MSCI delays DATS removal decision, but the suspense of January 15th remains unresolved

According to the latest news, MSCI has decided to retain DATS (Digital Asset Trusts and related companies) in its indices, postponing the original delisting decision until the 2026 review. At first glance, this seems like a relief, but in reality, it only delays the risk rather than eliminates it. MSCI will make a final decision on January 15th regarding whether to exclude companies holding large Bitcoin reserves, which remains a key catalyst the market is facing.

The Market Game Behind the Delayed Decision

Why does MSCI want to exclude these companies

MSCI’s logic is clear: if a company’s digital asset holdings account for more than 50% of its total assets, it is more like an “investment fund” rather than an “operational enterprise.” MSCI’s indices generally do not include investment funds, which is a fundamental principle of index construction.

MicroStrategy (MSTR) is a perfect example of this rule in reverse. According to reports, about 77% of MSTR’s assets are Bitcoin, far exceeding the 50% threshold. This company has gradually evolved from a traditional software enterprise into a de facto “Bitcoin fund.”

The true meaning of the postponement

Delaying until the 2026 review does not mean the risk is eliminated. On the contrary, it may reflect several realities:

• MSCI might be waiting for more data and market reactions to make a more cautious decision
• The market’s strong reaction to the DATS narrative has forced MSCI to pause
• But the final decision on January 15th is still planned; this timing has not changed

The Market Has Already Priced in the Worst-Case Scenario

The actual reaction of stock prices and sentiment

MSTR’s stock price has already reflected market concerns. According to reports, MSTR fell 6.33% to $154.34 amid risk expectations, nearly 70% below its 2024 high. This sharp decline indicates that the market has, to some extent, priced in the risk of being delisted.

If MSCI indeed announces delisting on January 15th, potential subsequent impacts could include:

• Forced selling by passive funds: JPM estimates this could trigger $2.8 billion to $11.6 billion in passive sell-offs
• Collapse of the DATS narrative: losing liquidity premiums causes the coin-stock linkage flywheel to stall
• A vicious cycle: MSTR’s decline leads to Bitcoin’s decline, which further drags down MSTR

The Fragility of the DATS Narrative

The rise of Bitcoin in the past two to three quarters largely depended on sustained buying driven by the DATS narrative. The success of MSTR has spawned numerous DATS projects, which rely on MSTR’s liquidity premium and the coin-stock linkage flywheel to keep rising.

Once MSTR is excluded from MSCI, its liquidity premium will vanish, causing the entire narrative system to collapse. This is not just a problem for MSTR but a systemic risk for the entire DATS ecosystem.

What Might Happen in the 8 Days Before January 15th

Possible Market Reaction Paths

With 8 days until MSCI’s final decision, the market may:

• Continue to monitor any policy signals from MSCI
• Assess technical aspects of Bitcoin and related assets
• Adjust expectations based on macro environment factors (e.g., geopolitical tensions, Federal Reserve policies)

According to reports, some analysts believe that if DATS companies are not delisted, it will remove the “biggest obstacle” to market progress. But this premise itself is quite fragile.

Possible Outcomes Under Different Scenarios

Summary

MSCI’s postponement of the DATS delisting decision appears positive on the surface, but in essence, it only delays uncertainty. The final decision on January 15th remains a critical catalyst. The market’s vulnerability lies in the fact that the DATS narrative itself lacks fundamental support, overly relying on liquidity premiums and coin-stock linkage.

Current stock prices have already priced in some risks, but if delisting is announced on January 15th, subsequent passive sell-offs and psychological shocks could far exceed market expectations. For investors, the key focus during these 8 days should be whether MSCI provides any new policy signals and whether Bitcoin’s technical fundamentals can stand independently of the DATS narrative.