A month losing $2 million reveals lessons deeper than luck.

There is a trader on Polymarket who lost over $2 million in 30 days, despite having a win rate of 51% across 53 bets. It seems like a decent win rate, so why did he suffer such a big loss? The core issue isn't how many times he won, but how he won and how he lost.

His fatal weakness is obvious: he repeatedly makes the same mistake on popular sports events—buying YES head options at prices between 51 to 67 cents. It's like knowing there are pitfalls in the question but still jumping in. Many people misunderstand the meaning of "hot." Popular does not equal opportunity; sometimes, it's the opposite. The more popular an option is, the more its price already reflects market expectations. When you buy in, the profit margin is already compressed. And if a reverse movement occurs, losses can multiply exponentially.

This case reminds all participants in prediction markets and trading: a high win rate does not necessarily mean you can make money. The real determinants of success or failure are risk management and position structure in each trade. Blindly chasing popular options may lead to costs that make you regret deeply.