2026 Investment Outlook Map: Where Are the Turning Points in Cryptocurrency, Commodities, and Forex Markets?

In the investment market of 2025, there were dramatic fluctuations across multiple asset classes. As we enter 2026, major global institutions have issued outlooks, indicating key turning points in several sectors. This article summarizes authoritative forecasts to help investors understand the market context for the coming year.

Cryptocurrency: Can Bitcoin and Ethereum Sustain Their Uptrend?

Bitcoin: Target Price Between $150,000 and $200,000

Currently, Bitcoin trades around $92,110, with a pattern of rise and fall in 2025 that essentially ends flat. Market expectations for 2026 are notably divided.

Standard Chartered has lowered its target price from $200,000 to $150,000, citing a slowdown in crypto treasury company (DAT) purchases as a drag. However, Bernstein remains optimistic, projecting Bitcoin will surge to $150,000 in 2026, with a bolder prediction that it could reach $200,000 in 2027.

Bernstein specifically notes that Bitcoin has moved away from its traditional “four-year cycle” pattern and is entering a more sustainable upward channel. Nonetheless, Morgan Stanley adopts a cautious stance, believing the bull market is nearing its end. ETF capital inflows will be a key driver supporting prices.

Ethereum: Tokenization Wave Drives a New Cycle

Ethereum is currently priced at $3,220. In 2025, it experiences high volatility but ultimately ends the year flat. In 2026, institutional outlooks are more optimistic.

J.P. Morgan highlights the enormous potential of the tokenization trend, which relies on Ethereum infrastructure. Tom Lee, Chairman of BitMine, boldly predicts that tokenization will redefine the crypto supercycle, with Ethereum soaring to $20,000 in 2026.

Commodities: Structural Opportunities in Gold and Silver

Gold: 5%-30% Growth in 2026

Gold performed remarkably in 2025, with an annual increase of over 60%, marking the largest annual gain since 1979. Drivers include Federal Reserve rate cuts, increased global central bank purchases, and rising geopolitical risks.

The likelihood of gold prices rising in 2026 remains high. The World Gold Council forecasts a 5%-15% increase amid further Fed rate cuts, dollar depreciation, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts. If the global economy slows significantly and the Fed cuts rates sharply, gains could expand to 15%-30%.

Investment banks are generally optimistic, with target prices ranging from $4,500 to $5,000 per ounce. Goldman Sachs expects to reach $4,900 by the end of 2026, while U.S. banks believe expanding fiscal deficits and rising debt will continue to support gold prices, projecting $5,000 per ounce by year-end.

Silver: Supply Shortages Offer Greater Upside

Silver outperformed gold in 2025, with astonishing gains. The World Silver Institute notes a structural shortage worldwide: strong industrial demand, renewed investment interest, but slowing mine supply growth. The supply-demand gap is expected to widen further in 2026, supporting silver prices.

UBS and Bank of America have raised their target prices. UBS forecasts silver will reach $58-$60 per ounce in 2026, with the possibility of hitting $65. Bank of America also predicts a year-end price of $65 per ounce.

Stock Market: Can the Nasdaq 100 Lead the S&P 500?

In 2025, the Nasdaq 100 rose 22%, outperforming the S&P 500’s 18%, marking the third consecutive year of gains. Looking ahead to 2026, institutions are generally bullish on US stocks, citing the ongoing AI investment cycle.

J.P. Morgan states that giants like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta will continue increasing capital expenditures, potentially reaching $500 billion by 2026. These investments will directly boost core Nasdaq 100 components such as Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom.

Regarding index levels, J.P. Morgan forecasts the S&P 500 will reach 7,500 points (an 8% increase from current levels), while Deutsche Bank is more optimistic, expecting it to climb to 8,000 points by the end of 2026. Based on these targets, the Nasdaq 100 could surpass 27,000 points.

Forex Market: Divergence Among USD, EUR, and JPY

EUR/USD: Possibility of Rise Then Fall

In 2025, EUR/USD appreciated 13%, the largest gain in nearly eight years, benefiting from dollar depreciation. Amid the Fed’s rate cuts and the European Central Bank maintaining rates, most institutions expect the euro to continue appreciating in 2026.

J.P. Morgan and Nomura forecast a year-end rate of 1.20, while U.S. Bank is bullish at 1.22. However, Morgan Stanley issues a risk warning: if in the second half of the year the economy exhibits a “strong US, weak Europe” pattern, EUR/USD could fall back from 1.23 to 1.16, reflecting the long-term volatility pattern of the dollar exchange rate.

USD/JPY: The Most Divergent Among Major Pairs

In 2025, USD/JPY declined about 1% before rebounding. Institutional forecasts for 2026 vary widely.

J.P. Morgan believes the market has priced in the Bank of Japan’s rate hike expectations, and with Japan’s fiscal expansion, expects USD/JPY to rise to 164 by the end of 2026. Conversely, Nomura sees the opposite, noting that narrowing interest rate differentials will reduce the attractiveness of yen carry trades, and if US macro data weaken, position unwinding could push the rate down to 140 by year-end.

Energy: Crude Oil Downward Trend Likely to Persist

In 2025, oil prices fell sharply by nearly 20%, mainly due to OPEC+ resuming production and US output increases leading to oversupply. This trend is expected to intensify in 2026.

Goldman Sachs predicts WTI crude will fall to $52 per barrel, Brent to $56. JPMorgan’s estimates are slightly higher, with WTI at $54 and Brent at $58. Excess supply remains the primary factor suppressing oil prices.

Summary: Investment Themes and Risks in 2026

Looking ahead to 2026, crypto assets are expected to stabilize and rebound supported by institutional capital inflows. Gold and silver will continue to appreciate driven by safe-haven demand and structural supply shortages. US equities are promising due to the AI investment cycle, while the forex market faces more uncertainties. Investors should closely monitor Fed policy pace, geopolitical developments, and the dollar’s historical exchange rate trends to prepare for potential turning points.