Nanya Technology's 1B process enters the harvest period, transforming from cyclical stocks to AI infrastructure dividend stocks? The massive capacity shift behind the target price of 230 yuan

Nanya Technology (2408) has become the market focus today. Driven by optimistic expectations from Micron, the stock price surged to a historic high of NT$190 during trading, closing at NT$189, a single-day increase of 7.08%, with trading volume also expanding to 117,000 shares. This rally is not a fleeting phenomenon; behind it lies a deep reshaping of the supply and demand landscape in the memory industry.

1B Process Entering Capacity Release Stage, ASP Flexibility Creates Rare Ten-Year Highs

The core driver of Nanya’s recent rise is the official transition of its self-developed second-generation 10nm-class (1B) process into the revenue phase. According to the latest statistics, products using the 1B process now account for over 30% of Nanya’s bit output in 2025, with 16Gb DDR5 5600 specifications already in stable supply, and higher-speed 6400 MT/s versions in the verification sprint stage.

While competing with international giants, Nanya successfully balances maintaining DDR4 pricing advantages and narrowing the gap with DDR5 processes. This product structure optimization is directly translating into gross margin improvements— as the shipment proportion of 16Gb DDR5 surpasses double-digit revenue thresholds, a qualitative change in the product mix is emerging.

Institutional investors estimate that Nanya’s ASP quarter-over-quarter growth this season could be significantly revised upward from the original 35% to 55%, a rare increase in the past decade’s economic cycles.

Global Capacity Reallocation Triggers DDR4 Century-Long Shortage, Nanya Becomes Hot Commodity

The external factors driving these changes are equally critical— the three major memory manufacturers are aggressively competing for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) essential for AI servers, leading to a substantial shift in DDR4 capacity. This resource squeeze is expected to trigger a dramatic upheaval in the DDR4 market by the end of 2025.

Chinese manufacturer Changxin Storage announced plans to cut DDR4 monthly capacity by half to 10,000 wafers in 2026, while Micron’s subsidiary Crucial also announced the suspension of some DDR4 specifications early in 2026. Amidst major manufacturers reducing production, Nanya, which still maintains efficient DDR4 capacity, has become the preferred supplier for global system integrators, reversing the traditional cyclical fortunes of the industry.

Transformation from Cyclical Stocks to AI Infrastructure Dividend Stocks

The institutional sector is collectively revising upward Nanya’s profit outlook for 2026. Major state-owned investment firms have raised their target price from NT$160 to NT$230, reflecting confidence in its record-high gross margin of 64.5% projected for 2026. At that time, annual EPS is expected to surge from the previous NT$14 to NT$23.25.

On the technical side, Nanya today formed a solid bullish long-day candlestick, successfully stabilizing above all moving averages, with RSI and KD indicators showing bullish alignment. Although short-term speculative trading remains aggressive, as long as the gap support holds, the stock still possesses structural upward momentum.

Seasonal Variables and Concentration Risks Warrant Caution

Investors should note that towards the end of 2025, holiday-related volume contraction and short-term consolidation may occur. Additionally, the recent collective surge in the memory sector, with module manufacturers like Apacer hitting daily limit-ups, raises concerns about excessive capital concentration. If profit-taking selling pressure hits in the short term, stock volatility is likely to increase.

For long-term positioning, Nanya has completed its transformation from a traditional cyclical stock to an AI infrastructure dividend stock. The subsequent stock trend will depend on the movements of spot and contract prices for DRAM in early 2026— as long as the upward trend remains intact, Nanya’s bullish journey is truly underway.