The Truth About DOGE Reversal: $0.15 Behind Whale Wars and Investor Traps🌟🔥🌟

After a cycle lasting over two months of "False Recovery – Collapse," DOGE finally stabilized at the beginning of 2025. Since the temporary low at the end of December, DOGE has gained nearly 33% overall, marking the strongest rise since November of last year. But this time, technical indicators are not the decisive factor — the real game-changer is a silent internal war between whale armies.
Why did the reversal succeed? The answer is not in Japanese candlesticks but on the chain.
From November 4 to December 31, DOGE continued to record new lows, but the RSI indicator kept rising, forming a perfect bullish divergence pattern. This was supposed to be a reliable reversal signal, but in previous cases where similar patterns appeared, the market quickly halted at the start of the rebound, with gains only between 13% and 17%.
What’s the problem? Holdings.
The Average Whale: From "Rebound then Collapse" to "Stagnant Holding"
In my two failed previous recovery attempts, the "Average Whale" holding between one million and ten million DOGE played the role of "Market Encirclement" precisely:
• November 25: holdings decreased from 109.1 billion DOGE to 107.2 billion DOGE, and the market failed to rise
• December 21-22: holdings decreased from 108.6 billion DOGE to 107.9 billion DOGE, and the rebound failed again
But in the current reversal process, the strongest market force appeared and changed significantly. Since December 31, their holdings increased from about 108.4 billion DOGE to 108.8 billion DOGE, a net increase of nearly 40 million DOGE, equivalent to $6 million dollars approximately. More importantly, they did not realize profits at the start of the rebound but chose to continue holding and slightly increase their holdings. This continuous buying in the middle is what transformed the market from "day trading" to a "sustainable trend."
Warning sign: Divergence between the Giant Whale and Short Positions
However, success in the reversal does not mean risks have disappeared. On the contrary, when you can clearly see the movements of major forces, a bigger storm often precedes.
Hidden Short Position Divergence: Momentum Diminishes
From mid-October to early January, DOGE’s price gradually declined, but the RSI peak continued to rise, forming a "Hidden Bearish Divergence." Unlike bullish divergence, this pattern usually appears during an upward price movement, indicating that the price is still being pushed higher, but bullish momentum is waning, and selling pressure is gradually absorbing new demand. In other words, buyers are still exerting pressure but less efficiently.
The Giant Whale: Quiet Decline in Selling Pressure Worth $1.3 Billion
In addition to technical indicators, the strongest on-chain force — the "Giant Whale" holding over a billion DOGE — has begun actively reducing their positions since January 1. Their holdings decreased from about 726.8 billion DOGE to 718 billion DOGE, a net reduction of approximately 8.8 billion DOGE, equivalent to about $1.3 billion worth of supply entering the market.
This does not mean the market will change immediately, but when the hidden short position divergence appears alongside the Giant Whale reducing their positions, the most common outcome is — a slowdown in the rebound momentum, not an acceleration of the trend. The current risk phase can be more accurately described as "Whale-led risk": mid-tier whales hold their positions, giant whales sell, and retail investors cheer "the bull market is returning quickly."
$0.151: The Critical Area for Market Fate
Currently, technical indicators are secondary, and the price itself is the most important signal. DOGE has failed several times around the $0.151 level, which has become a crucial dividing line between short-term bullish and bearish trends.
Scenario 1: Unstable above $0.151
The likelihood of a correction increases significantly, with the first target at $0.137 ( a correction of about 8% ). If this support fails, the structure will reveal the $0.115 level more clearly. This trend will fully confirm the short hidden divergence and largely align with continued reduction of giant whale positions.
Scenario 2: Actual Breakout and Daily Close above $0.151
The impact of the bearish divergence will diminish, selling pressure will be absorbed by the market, and the possibility of rising to $0.173 will open.
The Harsh Reality of 2025: MEME Coins Are No Longer a Game for Retail Investors
The DOGE story reflects the harsh reality of the 2025 crypto market: the pricing control of MEME coins has completely shifted from retail investors to whales and hedge funds. After institutional positioning in Bitcoin and Ethereum, capital has begun shifting its attention to low-liquidity altcoins and manipulation ease.
According to the latest Chainalysis data, large transactions over $100,000 ( in DOGE increased from 12% in 2023 to 38% in 2025, while small transactions under $1,000 ) decreased from 45% to 19%. Whales are no longer satisfied with "chart manipulation" but now expect and deter retail investor moves through precise on-chain behavior analysis.
Ironically, while DOGE struggles at $0.15, the entire MEME coin sector is experiencing "structural divergence." PEPE achieved a weekly increase of 68% to reach a new high, and BONK tried to replicate the 5x legend, but DOGE’s giant whales began to withdraw. This indicates that capital is shifting from "Old MEME" to the "New MEME narrative," and DOGE, as a relic of the previous cycle, may lose its "unique cultural value."
In conclusion: Don’t just be liquidity moving between whales
This time, DOGE completed a real reversal, and the continuous holding by mid-tier whales remains the main factor supporting the market. But at the same time, bullish momentum is slowing, and giant whales have already taken profits, with the price under pressure around the central zone at $0.15.
The next trend does not depend on Musk’s tweets or retail FOMO but on its ability to hold above $0.151.
As a retail investor, you should be cautious not of "Will DOGE fall," but of "Are your buy orders being bought by mid-tier whales preparing to hand over their positions to the giant whales." When chain data shows a $1.3 billion sell-off, the slogan "The bull market is returning quickly" seems particularly concerning.
Discussion Topic
How do you see whale behavior changing in DOGE?
A. Increasing mid-tier whales is a critical sign of reversal, and $0.15 must be broken
B. The decline of giant whales is a warning sign, and a correction is imminent
C. DOGE is becoming outdated, and capital is shifting toward PEPE/BONK and new MEME coins
✍️ Leave your choice + reason in the comments section
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Disclaimer: This article is based solely on on-chain data and technical analysis and does not constitute investment advice. MEME coins are highly volatile, so manage risks carefully and make cautious decisions.(