Why is Bitcoin's price lagging behind in the context of RMB depreciation? The truth behind repeatedly testing the $90,000 threshold

The crypto market on Friday, December 12th, can be described as “some rejoice, some mourn.” While gold and silver repeatedly hit new highs, and US stock indices turned positive on Thursday, Bitcoin has been oscillating around the $90,000 mark, with a 24-hour price change of only -2.45%, and appears even weaker when valued in RMB. This unusual performance divergence is redefining the relationship between crypto assets and traditional finance.

Precious Metals Breakthrough vs Bitcoin Stagnation — Where Are the Contradictions?

Thursday’s market shows a clear increase in global demand to hedge against fiat currency devaluation. Silver led the rally, breaking the $64 historical high with a 5% gain; gold followed closely, approaching the $4,300 level. The driving force behind these gains points in the same direction: a weakening US dollar.

The US Dollar Index, for the first time since mid-October, touched a low, as the Federal Reserve’s Wednesday rate cut decision continued to pressure the dollar’s position. Logically, this should be a time for Bitcoin to shine. However, Bitcoin appears “powerless.” After rebounding to $93,000 on Thursday, it failed to break through. The latest trading price is $92,080, a slight decline in the past 24 hours. When priced in RMB, the decline would be further amplified by exchange rate fluctuations, indicating that Bitcoin’s appeal relative to other safe-haven assets is indeed waning.

Market Divergence: Why Is Crypto “Decoupling” from Stocks?

Jasper De Maere, strategist at Wintermute Trading, pointed out the key issue: Cryptocurrencies are gradually diverging from US stocks.

Data shows that over the past year, during macro-driven trading days, Bitcoin has outperformed the Nasdaq only 18% of the time. Thursday exemplifies this divergence — US stocks rebounded while cryptocurrencies declined. This suggests that market expectations for Fed rate cuts have been fully digested, and the marginal policy effects are diminishing.

More critically, investors’ focus is shifting from US monetary policy to the US cryptocurrency regulatory framework. This change in sentiment could become the dominant factor influencing Bitcoin’s trend in the first half of 2026, arriving much earlier than we anticipated.

Weakening Selling Pressure but Not Over Yet — Subtle Signals from Data Agencies

Data analysis firm Swissblock issued a signal that excites bulls but should not lead to complacency: Bitcoin’s downward pressure is easing.

Their analysis indicates that the recent round of selling has significantly weakened compared to the previous one, with sellers’ momentum not intensifying, and the market gradually showing signs of stability. But the keyword is “gradually” — these signals are far from confirming a trend reversal. In other words, we are in a “wait-and-see” period, with bulls and bears observing each other’s true intentions.

Technical Outlook: Two Sides — Weekly Remains Hopeful vs Daily Shows Signs of Life

From the weekly chart, Bitcoin’s situation remains grim. It failed to effectively break the $125,000 high in early Q4, then fell by as much as 36.22%, attracting buying support only around $80,000. Even after the rebound, the last three weekly candles repeatedly show prominent upper shadows, indicating each upward attempt was met with selling pressure. The $90,000 level, in particular, has become a “roadblock,” and Bitcoin has struggled to stay above it.

However, the daily chart tells a different story. Since bottoming at $80,000, Bitcoin has gradually formed a “higher low” structure. Market acceptance of the $90,000 level is increasing, and the rebound highs are slightly rising (Monday’s high reached $94,652). This gradual buildup provides some technical basis for bullish expectations.

Contrasting with ADA and AVAX performance is quite ironic: ADA fell 2.76%, AVAX rose 1.54%, with volatility much higher than Bitcoin, indicating that market risk appetite for small-cap coins still exists. Ethereum (ETH), although down 0.19%, remains above $3,220, with a relatively mild decline. This further confirms Bitcoin’s current relative weakness.

Four-Hour Chart Suggests Ascending Triangle — Where Is the Breakout?

On the four-hour chart, a more actionable pattern is emerging: an ascending triangle.

The previous support level has turned into resistance, around $93,961. If Bitcoin successfully breaks this level, the next significant resistance is just below $100,000, with the previous high of $99,939 being particularly critical. From a technical perspective, this is the most attractive target zone for bulls in the short term.

Bull-Bear Standoff: What Signals Are Needed for a Trend Reversal?

Bitcoin currently faces a classic “bull-bear tug-of-war” situation:

Bull’s supporting points: The decline lacks sustained momentum; a higher low structure has formed; the four-hour ascending triangle provides a technical basis for a breakout. As long as it breaks the $93,961 resistance, the probability of surpassing $100,000 increases significantly.

Bear’s doubts: Weak dollar, gold and silver hitting new highs, strong demand for hedging — in an environment that should favor Bitcoin, it still underperforms, indicating a clear lack of upward momentum. Compared to gold’s strong performance amid RMB depreciation, Bitcoin’s attractiveness is indeed declining.

Trader’s opportunities: Monitoring short-term charts is crucial. Although no clear trend reversal signals have appeared, multiple tests of the $90,000 level are building the case for a breakout. Once it surpasses $93,961, the $100,000 mark will become the next risk-reward target.