2026 Asset Outlook: Bitcoin Price Targets, EUR Strength, and Gold's Resilience — What Wall Street's Forecasts Reveal

After a volatile 2025, financial markets face a critical turning point in 2026. Here’s what major institutions anticipate across cryptocurrencies, commodities, and currency pairs.

Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin Price Divergence and Ethereum’s Tokenization Bet

Bitcoin’s Trajectory: $150,000 or Bust?

Bitcoin wrapped 2025 near flat after hitting record highs mid-year. The cryptocurrency’s 2026 outlook remains deeply contested. Standard Chartered downgraded its bitcoin price target from $200,000 to $150,000, citing concerns that government digital asset purchases may slow—though institutional ETF inflows are expected to remain robust. Bernstein echoes this $150,000 projection for 2026, though it maintains a bullish longer-term stance with a $200,000 target for 2027.

The debate hinges on cycle dynamics. Bernstein contends that bitcoin has departed from its traditional four-year boom-bust pattern, now locked in an extended bull market. Morgan Stanley disagrees sharply, warning that the cyclical structure remains intact and the current rally risks peaking soon.

Current bitcoin price sits at $92.08K (down 2.45% over 24 hours as of January 2026), suggesting room for upside if forecasts materialize.

Ethereum’s Blockchain Role in Tokenization

Ethereum volatility outpaced bitcoin in 2025, yet year-end closures were similarly tepid. However, institutions eye substantial upside. JPMorgan emphasizes tokenization’s transformative potential—a trend fundamentally dependent on Ethereum’s infrastructure. Tom Lee, BitMain’s Chairman, projects ETH reaching $20,000 in 2026, arguing that Ethereum’s 2025 lows mark a generational buying opportunity. Current ethereum pricing stands at $3.22K (+0.12% in 24-hour movement), well below these ambitious targets but within striking distance if the tokenization narrative accelerates.

Precious Metals: Gold and Silver Rally as Structural Support Persists

Gold’s Multi-Year Uptrend Continues

Gold prices surged 60% in 2025—the most explosive annual gain since 1979—powered by Federal Reserve rate cuts, sustained central bank accumulation, and geopolitical instability. The World Gold Council forecasts further appreciation in 2026, with baseline scenarios pointing to 5%–15% gains. Should a global economic slowdown trigger aggressive Fed easing, gold could climb as much as 15%–30%.

Investment banks maintain constructive stances: Goldman Sachs targets $4,900/oz by 2026 year-end (underpinned by continued central bank demand and ETF inflows), while Bank of America is more aggressive, projecting $5,000/oz as expanding fiscal deficits and rising debt support precious metal demand.

Silver’s Supply Crunch as a Catalyst

Silver’s 2025 outperformance versus gold reflected the gold-silver ratio compression and emerging supply constraints. The Silver Institute warns of persistent structural deficits driven by industrial demand recovery, investment appetite resurgence, and slowing mine production. This imbalance is anticipated to persist—and potentially worsen—throughout 2026.

UBS raised its silver forecast to $58–60/oz, with upside potential to $65/oz. Bank of America similarly projects $65/oz by year-end, validating the supply-demand thesis as a multiyear tailwind.

Equities: Nasdaq 100 and the AI Capex Super-Cycle

The Nasdaq 100 gained 22% in 2025, outpacing the S&P 500’s 18% rise and extending a three-year winning streak. JPMorgan highlights that hyperscale data centre operators—Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta—will sustain elevated capital expenditure across the coming years, with cumulative investment potentially reaching hundreds of billions by 2026.

This spending wave is projected to benefit Nasdaq 100 heavyweights: NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom. Deutsche Bank outlines upside scenarios where the S&P 500 approaches 8,000 by late 2026, contingent on robust earnings and sustained AI investment. Analysts extrapolating from S&P targets suggest the Nasdaq 100 could surpass 27,000 in 2026.

Currency Markets: EUR Strength, USD/JPY Divergence

EUR/USD: Monetary Policy Divergence as the Driver

EUR/USD rallied 13% in 2025—its largest annual gain in nearly eight years—as the U.S. dollar weakened. Looking ahead, monetary policy divergence between the Federal Reserve (expected to cut rates) and the European Central Bank (likely to hold steady) should support further EUR appreciation.

JPMorgan and Nomura forecast EUR/USD reaching 1.20 by 2026 year-end, while Bank of America is more bullish at 1.22. Morgan Stanley presents a contrarian narrative: EUR/USD could initially climb to 1.23 in the first half of 2026, then retreat to 1.16 in the second half should the U.S. economy outperform Europe. This divergence underscores EUR/USD’s sensitivity to relative economic momentum and policy trajectories.

USD/JPY: Carry Trade Mechanics Under Scrutiny

USD/JPY finished 2025 down roughly 1% after a tumultuous year. Outlooks split between bulls and bears. JPMorgan and Barclays anticipate continued strength, forecasting USD/JPY at 164 by year-end 2026, betting that Bank of Japan rate hike expectations are already priced in and fiscal expansion weakens the yen. Nomura and Citigroup adopt the opposite stance, arguing that narrowing interest-rate differentials will erode yen carry trade attractiveness. Should U.S. macroeconomic data disappoint, unwinding carry positions could trigger yen appreciation, with Nomura targeting 140 by 2026 close.

Energy Markets: Downside Bias Amid Supply Oversupply Risks

Crude oil plummeted nearly 20% in 2025 as OPEC+ restored output and U.S. production expanded. Many institutions skew bearish for 2026, citing oversupply risks if OPEC+ maintains elevated output and global demand growth moderates.

Goldman Sachs outlines a downturn scenario: WTI crude averaging ~$52/bbl and Brent ~$56/bbl. JPMorgan similarly highlights downside cases with WTI near $54/bbl and Brent around $58/bbl, contingent on sustained supply surpluses persisting throughout the year.

Bottom Line: 2026 presents a bifurcated narrative. Cryptocurrencies like bitcoin and ethereum face structurally higher price targets but cycle-dependent risks. Precious metals—gold and silver alike—appear supported by macro tailwinds. Equities may extend gains if AI-driven capex sustains momentum. Currencies hinge on divergent policy paths and economic performance, while energy faces headwinds from supply abundance.