#数字资产动态追踪 Recently, on-chain data provider Glassnode made an interesting discovery — when Bitcoin dropped to around $80,000 in late November, a key indicator may have signaled the formation of a stage or even cyclical bottom.

What exactly is this indicator? The "Profit Supply / Loss Supply" ratio of short-term holders (those holding less than 155 days). On November 24, this ratio fell to 0.013, which sounds insignificant, but historical data reveals the issue — every time this indicator hits this level, it corresponds to a critical market bottom, as seen in 2011, 2015, 2018, and 2022.

How pessimistic was the situation at that time? The loss supply of short-term holders surged to 2.45 million BTC, the highest since the FTX collapse, with only about 30,000 BTC in profit. Fast forward to 2026, Bitcoin rebounded to around $94,000, rising over 7% in just over two months, with the loss supply of short-term holders falling back to 1.9 million BTC, and profit increasing to 850,000 BTC, pushing the ratio up to 0.45.

Glassnode's analysis is very interesting — historically, when this ratio approaches 1 or even breaks through it, Bitcoin often enters a sustained upward trend, and the real top only appears when the ratio approaches 100. Currently, it’s far from that level, which means there’s still room to grow.