[International Gold] After reaching a high of $4,247, "Entering a correction phase"... Is the dollar rebound the main culprit?

• Gold weekly record high of $4,247 surpassed, then retreating to around $4,200… momentum for the rally weakening
• FOMC rate cut positive vs. dollar technical rebound negative clash… market direction uncertain
• Geopolitical risks and technical support defend the lower end… below $4,165 signals danger

Gold(XAU/USD) market has entered a range-bound movement after sharp fluctuations. On Thursday morning, gold prices surged to $4,247 per ounce, setting a new high, but were pushed back after the dollar’s technical rebound. The Fed’s signal of rate cuts was a positive factor, but as the dollar attempted to break out of its lows, short-term correction pressures in the gold market have increased.

The Fed rate cut, what lies behind it

The Fed cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points at this meeting, but future signals remain ambiguous. The dot plot indicated only one rate cut in 2026, and two participants expressed a preference for tightening in the current situation.

Chair Jerome Powell mentioned in a press conference the downside risks to the labor market and emphasized avoiding excessive tightening. This statement was a major factor driving the dollar weakness and boosting gold prices. However, with no specific timing for the next cut, a paradoxical situation has emerged that provides an opportunity for the dollar to rebound. The stronger the dollar, the more vulnerable gold becomes.

Risk appetite vs. geopolitical tension

As the stock market rally gains momentum, investor risk-on sentiment has revived. Typically, this leads to capital outflows from safe-haven assets like gold. But the current situation is more complex.

The Russia-Ukraine war situation is worsening. Reports have emerged that Ukrainian forces attacked and sank a Russian tanker affiliated with the Black Sea Fleet via drone strike, and President Putin reaffirmed his intention to control the Donbas region, maintaining a hardline stance. This geopolitical tension underpins the support at the lower end of gold prices. That’s why gold prices are not easily falling below $4,200.

( Technical outlook: where to buy, where to sell?

Gold charts have been range-bound over the past two weeks between $4,245 and $4,250 resistance levels.

Bullish scenario: If prices clearly break above and stabilize beyond $4,250, further gains toward $4,278 and $4,300 are possible.

Correction scenario: If prices pull back from current levels, $4,170–$4,165 could serve as the first buying opportunity)dip###. If this zone is broken, $4,125–$4,120 will become the final defense line. This zone overlaps with the 200-period exponential moving average and the rising trendline since late October, forming a strong support zone(Confluence Zone), likely marking a turning point in the medium-term trend.

On Thursday night, U.S. employment data such as initial jobless claims will be released. This data is expected to be a key variable in determining the short-term direction.