Ethereum's Technical Setup: Echoing Bitcoin's October Breakout Pattern

Someone reached out asking for my perspective on Ethereum. Here’s what the charts are telling us: ETH is displaying a setup remarkably reminiscent of what Bitcoin experienced back in October—enough consolidation strength has accumulated at the base to fuel a significant advance.

The Pattern Recognition

When Bitcoin cleared 80,000, resistance evaporated. The asset didn’t hesitate; it accelerated directly to 110,000. The mechanics were straightforward: after surpassing a major threshold and establishing stability, that former resistance transforms into a support floor. This psychological shift typically triggers breakout acceleration.

Ethereum appears to be replicating this exact sequence. After punching through 4,000, price has started to anchor above this level. Yet here’s where the trap unfolds for traders still operating on old frameworks: consolidation right after the breakout looks suspicious. It feels like a false signal. It feels like reversal is coming. So retail traders pile into short positions, expecting the pullback that should come according to traditional trading textbooks.

Then—the move happens anyway.

Current Positioning

At current levels around $2.94K, the technical picture remains clean. There are no legitimate medium-term short signals on the radar. The 4,300 area that many have targeted as a “peak for this cycle”? That’s not it. Once you’ve genuinely cleared 4,000 and held it, overhead resistance effectively dissolves.

The real question isn’t whether we reach 5,000—that’s highly probable if momentum sustains. The conversation worth having is whether 6,000 enters the realm of possibility. Given the pattern’s power and how capital typically behaves once a major resistance converts to support, that level isn’t fantasy.

What Happens Next

Do not short this. Anyone holding swing trade hedges should have already exited them.

Within the next few days, expect ETH to probe toward 4,500 as it steadily works higher. When that happens—and it will—watch the sentiment shift. Capitulation will turn to FOMO almost instantaneously. Those forced to cover shorts at losses. Those watching from cash wondering if they’ll miss it entirely. Market chaos tends to follow.

The parallel to last year is exact. How many got trapped when Bitcoin exceeded 80,000 and faced liquidation cascades? The same players making the same mistakes, because price action always feels different when you’re in it.