Recently, looking at the performance of the global financial markets, it’s like two different worlds: gold has risen above $4,500 per ounce, with an annual increase of over 70%, marking the best performance since 1979; the US stock market, represented by the S&P 500, repeatedly hits new all-time highs, and tech stocks are making retail investors happy; on the other hand, the crypto market experienced a flash crash on Christmas Eve, with Bitcoin down 7% for the year, and mainstream altcoins falling over 35%. The contrast is staggering.

Many people find it hard to understand: why haven't crypto assets kept pace with risk assets' gains, or benefited from safe-haven flows? Is there a chance for a rebound after the flash crash?

My straightforward judgment is: the crypto market is currently stuck in the transitional pain of being "marginalized." There are indeed opportunities for recovery, but they require a reflow of capital and a re-establishment of market logic. In the short term, high volatility will remain routine.

First, think clearly about the question—why is the crypto market falling behind? Actually, funds are voting with their actions, shifting from high-volatility, low-certainty assets to assets with certainty and supported by value. Currently, in 2025, the global economy is in a phase of weak recovery and low inflation, with the Federal Reserve’s policy path still unclear. Under this uncertainty, safety is what capital values most. Why has gold surged wildly? Because it is a traditional safe-haven hard asset that can hedge macro risks; why are US stocks reaching new highs? Because behind tech stocks there are real earnings that provide stable returns for investors.

And what about crypto assets? Their "digital gold" value is not widely recognized, so safe-haven capital isn’t flowing in; their identity as "risk assets" is also hindered by regulatory uncertainty, causing concerns among institutional investors. This is the current dilemma. But this situation won’t last forever. Once the global economic landscape stabilizes and regulatory frameworks become clearer, capital will naturally reassess the opportunities in the crypto market.