Recently, Ethereum's price movement has been utterly insane—after the Christmas holiday, ETH repeatedly oscillated around the $3000 mark, falling below the $2900 support after reaching a high of $2970. The daily chart shows a series of consecutive declines, keeping many traders awake at night. But beyond the price fluctuations themselves, what’s more worth pondering is the huge gap between the "public statements" and "private actions" of those institutions behind the scenes.

Speaking of this, we have to mention Tom Lee’s confusing moves. This Wall Street analyst has been loudly claiming throughout 2024 that the "Ethereum super cycle has arrived." In early December, during a blockchain week at a major exchange, he even went so far as to say that the $3000 ETH price was severely undervalued, and boldly projected an aggressive target of $60,000. Retail investors listened eagerly, ready to go all-in.

However, a report provided internally to paid clients by Fundstrat told a different story—clearly indicating that ETH could fall into the $1800-$2000 range in the first half of 2026, and advising clients to stay cautious and hold more stablecoins. From the frenzy of $60,000 to the pessimistic warning of $2000, this 180-degree shift— is it really just "analysts changing their personal opinions"?

My judgment is that the logic behind this is actually quite simple—big funds are playing the "information asymmetry harvesting" game. On one hand, they use optimistic public statements to keep retail investors holding the bag, while internally preparing risk mitigation plans and gradually reducing their positions. This way, they can maintain market enthusiasm while escaping the top in advance. After all, when everyone is optimistic, that’s the best time to dump.

From a technical perspective, ETH’s recent candlestick patterns indeed show signs of instability. Trading volume is clearly waning, rebounds are weak, and the brief recoveries after breaking support are just fleeting. This market behavior often indicates that big funds are quietly offloading. Coupled with these contradictory statements from institutions, it’s safe to conclude one thing—smart money is exiting.

So what should retail investors do? Instead of being confused by these dizzying forecasts, it’s better to return to fundamentals: monitor on-chain fund flows, changes in institutional holdings, and market sentiment indicators. When institutions shout bullish but are reducing their positions, that’s often the most dangerous signal. Stay cautious, don’t be fooled by short-term volatility and shiny predictions—perhaps that’s the best way to survive this round of correction.