Two-period RSI simultaneously entering oversold territory, which is rare on the Ethereum chart. The 4-hour RSI dropped to 26.9, and the 1-hour RSI is also not far behind at only 29.5; both curves flashing red almost simultaneously. This is called "resonance bullishness" in technical analysis — sounds promising. But the issue is that the daily chart's major trend is still downward, which makes things interesting.

On one side, there's a short-term rebound signal; on the other, the long-term environment remains under downward pressure. This "short-term bearish, long-term bearish" contradiction has occurred many times in history. Statistics show that after multi-timeframe oversold resonance appears, there's over a 60% chance of triggering a strong rebound within the next 24 hours. Currently, Ethereum's price is teetering around 2915. Is this the final release of the bears? Or the first horn signaling the start of a rebound? It's hard to say, but signs can be found.

Rather than blindly bottom-fishing, it's better to wait for a high-probability opportunity. We focus on the area around 2895, where multiple support levels converge. Once the price stabilizes here, there's a high likelihood of a upward correction to the 2994 resistance level. This is the "sniping point" for this operation.

How exactly to operate? First, patience is key. Don't rush to place orders; wait until the price truly hits 2895, and a clear bullish signal appears on the 15-minute K-line (such as a long lower shadow or bullish engulfing). Only then should you act. Set the stop-loss at 2878; if it breaks below, exit unconditionally — this is a strict rule with no exceptions.

The risk-reward calculation is clear: risking 17 points to gain 95 points, which is a risk-reward ratio of 1:5.6. The risk-reward ratio is laid out plainly, so position size doesn't need to be large; 2%-3% of total capital is sufficient.

If the price rebounds to 2950, immediately cut half of the position and move the stop-loss of the remaining position to the cost basis. This ensures the safety of the principal, and any subsequent gains are profit. The ultimate target is 2990, the upper boundary of this rebound zone. Once reached, exit all positions — no greed.

What’s the scenario for the next 12 hours? The high-probability (60%) scenario is that the price stabilizes around 2895-2888 and then initiates a rally toward 2950-2990. But there's also a small-probability (40%) scenario: if the price volume surges and breaks below the key support at 2878, the rebound logic fails, and a new downtrend may begin. If that happens, strictly stop-loss and switch to a wait-and-see stance. Markets are unpredictable; plans can't keep up with changes, but having a contingency plan is always better than being caught off guard.