Four-Year Cycle Back in Focus: Bitcoin Technical Analysis Shows Oversold Territory with Limited Downside

MEVictim · 2025-12-26T20:20:11+00:00

![image](https://img-cdn.gateio.im/social/moments-8d7473d442-2bc78434cc-153d09-6d5686)Source: CryptoNewsNetOriginal Title: Chinese Analysis Firm Says “Four-Year Cycle Back in the Spotlight” for Bitcoin, Answers the Question of Whether a Rise is ComingOriginal Link: https://cryptonews.net/news/bitcoin/32192675/According to a weekly market report, Bitcoin (BTC) has been on a downward trend since mid-October 2025.The report notes that market sentiment is becoming increasingly cautious, and with the re-emergence of the "four-year cycle" concept, many investors predict that pressure on Bitcoin could continue throughout 2026.Key observations from the analysis include:- **Market Dynamics**: The tightening volatility, reduced leverage, and weakening risk appetite in recent months have put pressure on Bitcoin prices. A significant shift in market positioning has been observed across derivatives, ETF flows, and technical indicators.- **Options Market**: The approaching expiration of the largest Bitcoin option in history has made the strike price distribution a critical indicator for monitoring market pressure and potential opportunities.- **Year-End Positioning**: Investors generally tend to be more conservative as the year draws to a close. However, the reallocation of funds and consolidation of risk budgets at the start of the new year could pave the way for a faster reversal in market sentiment.- **Technical Outlook**: The downward momentum has slowed, but a clear bullish consensus has not yet formed. The market may be shifting from a phase where "downside risks outweigh upside risks" to a phase where "downside is limited, but catalysts are needed for upside."- **Oversold Signals**: The weekly stochastic indicator has fallen to the 17% level, suggesting the market may have entered oversold territory. While a short-term technical recovery is possible, it requires a strong trigger to materialize.

MEVictim

2025-12-26 20:20:11

Source: CryptoNewsNet Original Title: Chinese Analysis Firm Says “Four-Year Cycle Back in the Spotlight” for Bitcoin, Answers the Question of Whether a Rise is Coming Original Link: https://cryptonews.net/news/bitcoin/32192675/ According to a weekly market report, Bitcoin (BTC) has been on a downward trend since mid-October 2025.

The report notes that market sentiment is becoming increasingly cautious, and with the re-emergence of the “four-year cycle” concept, many investors predict that pressure on Bitcoin could continue throughout 2026.

Key observations from the analysis include:

Market Dynamics: The tightening volatility, reduced leverage, and weakening risk appetite in recent months have put pressure on Bitcoin prices. A significant shift in market positioning has been observed across derivatives, ETF flows, and technical indicators.
Options Market: The approaching expiration of the largest Bitcoin option in history has made the strike price distribution a critical indicator for monitoring market pressure and potential opportunities.
Year-End Positioning: Investors generally tend to be more conservative as the year draws to a close. However, the reallocation of funds and consolidation of risk budgets at the start of the new year could pave the way for a faster reversal in market sentiment.
Technical Outlook: The downward momentum has slowed, but a clear bullish consensus has not yet formed. The market may be shifting from a phase where “downside risks outweigh upside risks” to a phase where “downside is limited, but catalysts are needed for upside.”
Oversold Signals: The weekly stochastic indicator has fallen to the 17% level, suggesting the market may have entered oversold territory. While a short-term technical recovery is possible, it requires a strong trigger to materialize.

BTC0,74%

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