ETH Tonight at the Crossroads: Will US Jobs Data Be the Tipping Point?

At 8:30 PM Beijing time, the US unemployment data arrives—and it could redefine ETH’s entire trajectory. Current price action has ETH hovering around the $2,930 level, locked in a sideways consolidation that’s unlikely to persist much longer. The key question isn’t whether we’ll break out, but which direction the data will push us.

Market Structure Under Pressure

ETH sits at a critical juncture where every technical level matters:

Upper Resistance Zones: The 4710 level represents the first barrier—clear it, and we target 4736 and 4750 in succession. A true breakout would aim for the 4770-4772 range, signaling sustained momentum. Anything less remains a false breakout attempt.

Lower Support Foundation: The 4650 level is where the tide turns. Lose this floor, and cascading liquidations become probable, dragging the price toward 4600 and potentially below. This isn’t just a support level—it’s the line between consolidation and capitulation.

What the Indicators Tell Us

MACD signals weakening bullish momentum. The histogram bars are compressing, suggesting the engine is running on fumes. We’re in that dangerous zone where any bad data can flip the dial.

RSI hovering at 50 means genuine equilibrium—neither overbought nor oversold. Bulls and bears are locked in stalemate, waiting for the next catalyst to break the tie.

Volume has dropped to 125k per hour, roughly 10% below the rolling average. This is classic pre-data behavior: traders are sitting on their hands, unwilling to commit until we get clarity.

The Data Event: How It Reshapes Everything

Stronger-than-expected unemployment data strengthens the US dollar and weakens risk assets. ETH faces selling pressure in this scenario.

Weaker-than-expected data signals Fed rate cut probabilities rise, weakens the dollar, and ETH tends to rally alongside risk appetite returning.

But here’s what most traders miss: the market reaction matters more than the data itself. If unemployment comes in hot but ETH refuses to fall, it signals hidden support beneath the surface. If it comes in weak yet ETH rallies and reverses, it reveals serious overhead resistance that sellers are defending.

Two Paths Forward

If 4650 Cracks: The market enters freefall mode. Liquidation cascades from 4600 down to previous swing lows. Stop-loss hunters will accelerate selling. Conservative traders should exit or enter light shorts aligned with the trend—don’t try catching falling objects.

If 4650 Holds: We’re looking at a stabilization pattern. If volume dries up here, it often precedes accumulation. The next target is 4710, then 4736, 4750, and ultimately the 4770-4788 cluster. This becomes a lower-risk entry for traders betting on the rebound.

Bottom Line

Tonight’s unemployment report at 8:30 PM is the catalyst that decides whether ETH consolidates higher or breaks lower. The 4650 support level is your compass. Everything between now and the print is noise; the next 30 minutes determines the next 30 days.

Position accordingly.