BTC/Gold ratio hits critical support at 20 ounces: Turning point or trap?

Bitcoin has once again reached a level not seen since early 2024: the BTC/XAU ratio stands at 20 ounces of gold per bitcoin. This ratio hitting 2024 reflects an important tension point among investors, who are evaluating whether this presents a buying opportunity or a sign of weakness in the BTC price.

Market divided: Bottom or bearish continuation?

Traders are divided on what this level means. Some see the 20 ounces as a potential support floor, considering it was an effective support in early 2024. Others, however, warn that this zone could be just a pause in a longer-term weaker trend, especially given the current macroeconomic environment.

With Bitcoin trading around $87.35K, pressure on this ratio is evident. Gold, historically a safe haven during uncertainty, is gaining relative ground against the digital asset.

Technical signals send mixed messages

The RSI indicator on weekly charts shows bullish divergence, suggesting there may be room for a rebound. At the same time, lower highs and lower lows on the weekly chart indicate that the long-term trend remains bearish, with significant resistance at higher levels.

This clash between short-term signals (potential reversal) and long-term trend (relative weakness) has left analysts in an uncomfortable position. Some interpret this as consolidation near a key psychological level, while others see risks of further breakdown.

What’s next in the coming weeks?

The coming weeks will be decisive. If Bitcoin manages to recover and the BTC/XAU ratio rises above 21 ounces, the bulls would take control of the narrative. Conversely, a drop below 20 ounces would confirm relative weakness and could trigger new sell signals.

This moment in the cryptocurrency market reflects a potential inflection point, where the decision between technical rallies and structural trends will be clearly defined in the short term.