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Gold breaks through $4,500 per ounce, silver approaches $75 per ounce, and copper prices surge to $12,000 per ton. The global metal market is experiencing a rare surge. Since the beginning of the year, gold prices have increased by nearly 70%, silver has risen by about 150%, and copper has also gained over 40%. Is this wave a bubble driven by hot money speculation, or is it a trend?
It may seem crazy, but there are clues to follow. This is not caused by a single factor, but the result of multiple forces such as global liquidity, geopolitical situations, industrial demand, and supply constraints resonating together.
First, let's talk about interest rate cuts. By 2025, major global central banks will enter a rate-cutting mode. The Federal Reserve has cut rates three times in a row, totaling 75 basis points, causing the US dollar index to weaken. For zero-yield assets like gold, the holding cost directly decreases, increasing its allocation value. The depreciation of the dollar also directly pushes up the prices of all dollar-denominated metals—this is the core trigger.
In a loose liquidity environment, where does the money flow? It definitely flows from low-yield areas into strategic resources like precious metals and non-ferrous metals. The global gold ETF holdings have been rising month after month, with retail investors and institutions rushing in, amplifying the price increase. This is a typical herd effect of capital—once the trend forms, the more people chase the rally, the stronger the upward momentum.