I recently saw Triblu founder Joshua share a viewpoint on social media: if XRP can enter the US strategic crypto reserve, holders could potentially become millions, billions, or even trillions of dollars richer. This argument has sparked quite a bit of discussion in the crypto community, but upon closer examination, the underlying assumptions are a bit far-fetched.

First, let's talk about Joshua's core basis: XRP is safer than Bitcoin because it has an associated corporate entity, whereas Bitcoin is fully decentralized. On the surface, this logic seems plausible—national reserves would indeed consider controllability. But the reality is far more complex.

The most immediate obstacle is the legal framework. The US regulatory system for crypto assets has yet to reach a clear final stance, and XRP has previously been entangled in securities classification issues. Its compliance status has never been fully settled. Under these circumstances, how can an asset with ongoing regulatory disputes enter the national strategic reserve? It's like asking someone without a driver's license to drive a school bus—logically inconsistent.

Second, there's the practical issue of scale. To truly create trillionaires, XRP's market cap would need to inflate to an astronomical level. But currently, the total market value of the entire crypto market is insignificant compared to global capital. Relying solely on the concept of a "reserve" cannot leverage such a massive volume. This isn't to say XRP lacks investment value, but rather that the specific "reserve hypothesis" itself is fundamentally flawed.

Another often overlooked point: even if the US were to consider a crypto reserve, it would never choose just one coin. Diversification is basic financial wisdom. Bitcoin, due to its largest market cap and widest recognition, would be the primary candidate. XRP trying to carve out a share faces high opportunity costs and intense competition.

These kinds of viewpoints actually reflect a common flaw in the crypto market—overly imagining the multiplier effects of policy catalysts. Once a concept is tagged as "national level" or "strategic level," some start to extrapolate endlessly. But real financial decision-making is usually much more cautious. Any major asset allocation decision in the US involves complex policy assessments and risk evaluations, and won't be swayed by a single idealized assumption.

For XRP investors, rather than waiting for this distant "reserve dream," it's better to focus on its actual use cases, ecosystem development, and the real changes in the regulatory environment. Those are more reliable points of value support.