When market panic sets in, it is often the moment when敏锐的 traders start to position themselves.

Recently, a move by the Bank of Japan has attracted a lot of attention—interest rates were raised directly from 0.5% to 0.75%, the highest in thirty years. After the news broke, many people's first reaction was to rush out and sell high-risk assets, fearing being caught in a downturn. Bitcoin also immediately became a focus of attention.

But interestingly, the market did not follow the usual pattern.

**The old rule of thumb in history is this**

An interest rate hike in Japan means higher borrowing costs for the yen. Usually, this leads to forced stop-losses for carry traders borrowing yen to buy high-risk assets like Bitcoin. Capital flows in the opposite direction, and Bitcoin's price drops accordingly. The rate hike in July last year is a clear example—Bitcoin fell 23% within a week. So many people automatically applied this formula this time—either closing positions early or simply not daring to enter.

**But this time, it’s different**

After the rate hike announcement, the reaction of the yen against the dollar was unexpected. Instead of appreciating, it even depreciated by 40 points in the short term. This detail is crucial—it broke the causal chain of "Japan raises interest rates → yen appreciates → carry trade unwinds → Bitcoin drops."

Why is that?

Simply put, this rate hike was no longer a surprise. Before the meeting, the market had already priced in a 97% probability of a rate increase. The Bank of Japan also communicated thoroughly in advance, with no element of "surprise." From another perspective, the market had already "pre-emptively priced in" the hike—this official move merely turned expectations into reality, without any additional shockwaves.

**The overlooked opportunity is right here**

When everyone operates based on old experience, those who position in the opposite way see the gaps. The misalignment caused by market misjudgment is where the opportunity lies. Since the yen did not appreciate as per historical patterns, it indicates that part of this adjustment has already been digested in advance. Bitcoin also did not perform the "big crash" scenario.

At such times, it is often the patience and willingness to think differently that allows traders to quietly position themselves.