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Recently, the market has been quite volatile, and many people can't sit still when they see prices go up or down, frequently making moves that result in repeated losses. In fact, those who can truly make money in such market conditions are never relying on quick reflexes, but on strong observation skills and disciplined execution.
Over the years, I’ve experienced many setbacks in choppy markets and finally developed a relatively reliable approach. Today, I want to share these six iron rules.
**Market Structure Signals — Spotting Clues from Sideways Movements**
Markets that surge continuously are often already near the top. Entering at this point is likely to result in catching a falling knife. Conversely, those that repeatedly probe and oscillate within a certain range, once they break out with increased volume, tend to have strong continuation afterward. This is because the sideways phase is a process of capital redistribution, with the market accumulating strength.
**The Secret of Volume — Gradual Rise vs. Explosive Growth**
When observing price increases, it’s crucial to also watch the volume. If the price is rising slowly while volume steadily and gently increases, it indicates ongoing capital deployment, making the rally healthier. But if there’s a sudden sharp rise with volume exploding, signaling a spike in heat, it often means big players are reducing their positions. The higher the heat, the more cautious you should be.
**The Art of Pullbacks — How to Tell if It’s a Shakeout or a Top**
When prices rise too quickly, a pullback usually occurs to confirm support. Pay close attention: if during the pullback, volume contracts and key support levels are not broken, it’s a good low-entry opportunity. But if the pullback is insufficient, with volume shrinking and then bouncing back, this structure isn’t very healthy, and it’s best not to heavily commit.
**Details of Downtrends — Crash vs. Gradual Decline, Two Different Things**
A rapid decline with very low volume suggests weak selling pressure, likely just a short-term shakeout. In such cases, consider buying on dips. However, if the decline is slow and steady with increasing volume, be cautious—this often indicates ongoing capital withdrawal, and further declines may follow.
**Timing the Bottom — Wait for Low Volume at New Lows**
Sometimes you see new lows with very low volume, indicating selling pressure is exhausted. But don’t rush to buy the dip immediately. The best approach is to wait patiently for signs of volume-driven rebounds. Once the bullish trend is confirmed, then consider entering. This greatly improves success rates.
**The Danger of High Positions — No-Volume Rallies Are Worrisome**
When major coins like ETH or SOL surge to high levels without accompanying volume, it shows a lack of follow-through capital. Such rallies are unlikely to sustain. Most likely, it’s just a rebound that will quickly fall back. In such situations, reduce trading activity, avoid being attracted by repeated high-level oscillations, and don’t hesitate to cut losses—stopping out repeatedly can be very discouraging.
**Final Words**
Choppy markets really test your skill: watch more, act less. Missing an opportunity simply means you didn’t profit, but making the wrong move can lead to losses. Instead of chasing hot topics, focus on maintaining your trading discipline. Opportunities are always present in the market, but capital is limited. Protecting your principal is more important than anything else.