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Japan's Fiscal Policy Suddenly Shifts—Budget Surplus Expected for the First Time in 28 Years

Sanae Takaichi recently revealed that Japan is on track to achieve its first primary budget surplus in nearly three decades. For a country long plagued by deficits, this is a 180-degree turnaround. After years of "stimulus economics," is Japan about to switch to "tightening the belt"?

Why is the market reacting so strongly? Two perspectives:

**First, the fiscal side is truly adjusting**
On one hand, economic stimulus spending; on the other, a call to return to surplus. It sounds contradictory, but if achieved, the yen could see a confidence rebound, and Japanese government bond risks would significantly ease. Global investors will likely need to reassess Japan’s economic outlook.

**Second, inflation data is beginning to cool**
Tokyo December CPI year-over-year dropped to 2.0%, with food prices rising noticeably less. On the surface, the pressure to raise interest rates seems to lessen, but don’t assume the Bank of Japan will immediately shift to easing—yen remains weak, and market tension has not fully dissipated.

**What does this mean for safe-haven assets?**
When the yen weakens, gold and cryptocurrencies become hedging options. The more volatile the market, the greater the opportunity window.

**But the real uncertainty lies in the US**
Trump is pushing a combination of strong growth and high tariffs. Global capital reallocation has already begun. Japan’s policy adjustments aim to stabilize its economy while responding to the waves stirred by US policies.

Japan, which has run deficits for decades, is now suddenly hitting the brakes. With inflation cooling and US storms brewing, how will this chess game unfold? Yen, Japanese bonds, safe-haven assets—the next round of volatility is already on the horizon.