Coinbase acquires The Clearing Company, will the landscape of the crypto industry change dramatically?

Coinbase announces the formal acquisition of prediction market startup The Clearing Company, delivering a heavy blow to the crypto industry by the end of 2025. The acquisition is expected to be completed by January 2026, with the specific transaction amount not yet disclosed.

This acquisition is not only to compete in the emerging prediction market sector but also reveals Coinbase’s ambition to integrate crypto and traditional finance, building a “universal exchange” strategy.

01 Strategic Acquisition: Why Is Coinbase Targeting Prediction Markets?

Global leading crypto exchange Coinbase recently announced that it has reached an agreement to acquire The Clearing Company. This is not a casual expansion but a crucial step in Coinbase’s “Universal Exchange” strategy to cover all asset classes.

Just last week, Coinbase partnered with prediction platform Kalshi, opening up trading of real-world events to its users. Acquiring The Clearing Company provides an immediate team with expertise in building and scaling event-driven trading systems.

The founders of The Clearing Company include Toni Gemayel, who was previously Growth Lead at prediction market Kalshi, along with senior members from blockchain prediction platform Polymarket and former Chief Compliance Officer of Kalshi. The addition of this team provides Coinbase with core momentum to rapidly advance prediction market operations within a compliant framework.

02 Market and Compliance: A Race of Time and Territory

Behind this acquisition is the huge opportunity currently in the prediction market sector. According to Dune Analytics data, the weekly nominal trading volume in this field has surpassed $4 billion.

For example, in the 2024 US presidential election, just one platform, Polymarket, generated over $3.7 billion in trading volume, demonstrating enormous market potential.

However, opportunities always coexist with challenges. The core issue facing prediction markets is compliance. Many high-traffic platforms (like Polymarket) operate overseas and restrict US users. Coinbase’s bet is that a platform operating legally and compliantly within the US can legitimately serve this suppressed demand.

The Clearing Company submitted an application for a clearinghouse license to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission in November 2025. Its technical expertise lies in building prediction market infrastructure compliant with US regulations. Acquiring it allows Coinbase to directly gain a “regulatory moat” for entering this field.

03 Building “Universal Exchange”: A Thoughtful Diversification

Coinbase’s ambition extends far beyond adding a new business segment. This acquisition is a key part of its grand narrative of building a “Universal Exchange”.

Competitors like Robinhood and Kraken have already started offering stock and prediction market trading to users. Coinbase plans to expand platform functionality to include new cryptocurrencies, perpetual futures contracts, stocks, and prediction markets, creating a one-stop unified trading venue.

For Coinbase, prediction markets are an important way to expand revenue streams and reduce reliance on spot trading fees. They attract not only crypto speculators but also a broader user base interested in trading political, economic, sports, and cultural event outcomes.

04 Market Dynamics: Price and Sector Reactions to the Acquisition News

Before and after the announcement of this acquisition, the market showed noticeable reactions. Coinbase’s stock experienced volatility, closing at $247.90 on December 22, the day the news was announced, followed by a pullback in the subsequent trading days.

According to the latest data from Gate platform as of December 25, 2025, major crypto assets’ prices remain relatively stable, indicating a rational market response:

• Bitcoin at $87,618.70, up 0.77% in 24 hours.
• Ethereum at $2,942.30, up 0.3% in 24 hours.
• Solana at $122.48, up 0.78% in 24 hours.

The overall crypto market sentiment index is 23, in the “extreme fear” zone, reflecting cautious investor sentiment. Any single event is unlikely to reverse the overall market atmosphere in the short term. However, in such market environments, leading platforms making strategic acquisitions often position themselves advantageously for the next bull market.

05 Industry Impact and Future Outlook: Prediction Markets to Go Mainstream

Coinbase’s acquisition may mark a watershed moment in transforming prediction markets from a niche speculative field into mainstream financial infrastructure. It is not just a business race but also a contest for dominance over future information pricing mechanisms.

Prediction markets, known as “collective intelligence” experiments in finance, aggregate dispersed group information into probability forecasts of future events through trading. With the entrance of mainstream exchanges like Coinbase and Binance, transparency and compliance in this market are expected to improve.

For everyday traders, this could mean future opportunities to trade cryptocurrencies, stocks, and bet on outcomes like a presidential election or a Super Bowl champion within the same familiar interface. Asset boundaries are blurring, and financial accessibility is being redefined.

Future Outlook

While Coinbase advances into the prediction market arena through this acquisition, other platforms are not standing still. Gate recently launched its own Web3 ecosystem event, announcing a New Year “Open Market” promotion from December 25 to January 7, offering first-trade rewards to users.

Market competition is far from over. Polymarket benefits from first-mover advantage and strong brand recognition, while Kalshi has established a regulated US operation. Integrating a startup team’s technology into a publicly listed exchange under strict regulation is no easy task.