Currently, the market focus is on two major events: the upcoming US CPI data release and the potential for the Bank of Japan to face its first rate hike in over a decade. Bitcoin has been oscillating around $86,000, unable to break through the resistance above or fall below, and this silence instead feels unsettling.

As a long-term market observer, I perceive not opportunities but underlying currents. Last night's sharp rise and subsequent pullback seem like a technical adjustment, but in reality, large funds are preemptively positioning themselves for risk avoidance and quietly restructuring their holdings.

**East-West Policy Tug-of-War, Market Becomes a Battleground**

The contradictions are now quite prominent. The Federal Reserve is beginning to cut rates to release liquidity, while the Bank of Japan may tighten monetary policy. It’s like a tug-of-war, with the market being pulled painfully.

The most dangerous factor is the change in the yen arbitrage chain. For years, international capital has borrowed low-cost yen to flood into Bitcoin and high-risk assets. Once Japan initiates a rate hike cycle, the cost of borrowing yen will rise significantly, and capital will react swiftly—fleeing. Historically, during the few policy shifts in Japan, the market experienced considerable declines. Currently, leverage on exchanges has piled up to dangerous levels, and position data is transparent. This fragile structure could be ignited by just a spark.

**CPI Data: No matter how it turns out, it’s a trap**

Tonight’s CPI forecast is 3%. But behind this number lies high risk and low return betting.

If the actual data exceeds 3%, the market’s hope for "continued rate cuts next year" will be completely shattered.