"USDT Black Paper" — Volume 3: One Fish Four Ways — The Profitable Arbitrage System in the USDT Decoupling Era (Professional Edition)

“History will reward those who understand both risk and process. ‘One Fish Four Eats’ is not gambling, but an accurate capture of market rhythm.” Preface This article is the “Practical Operation” section. I break down the ‘One Fish Four Eats’ into four executable steps and provide the risk control and technical prerequisites for each step. Suitable for readers with some trading experience who can accept high risk and high complexity operations. I. Overall Strategy Framework (Four Stages) 1. Pre-judgment and Signal Confirmation (Before Entry) 2. Attack During De-anchoring (Short USDT / Sell) 3. Hedging and Risk Offsetting (Long/hedge BTC or other safe-haven assets) 4. Re-anchoring and Harvesting (Buy back USDT / Close BTC position) Each stage must have clear trigger conditions and exit rules. II. Stage Details and Practical Tips (1) Pre-judgment and Signal Confirmation Observation: C2C quote fluctuations, perpetual discount, on-chain large transfers, government news, exchange announcements. Tools: Market alerts, on-chain transfer monitoring (self-built or third-party), exchange depth monitoring. Trigger: Any two anomalies simultaneously, enter observation mode. Three or more concurrent anomalies, enter preparation phase. (2) De-anchoring Stage: Short USDT / Sell spot. Shorting methods: If USDT/USD futures/perpetual contracts are available, use them. If direct shorting isn’t possible, sell USDT to merchants or exchange for more stable assets like BTC. Risk points: Slippage on execution, whether the exchange will suspend the trading pair, counterparty risk. Fund management: Set clear stop-loss for each position (based on leverage and maximum tolerable loss). This involves OTC merchants—merchants may also be aware of policies or see rapid price drops, knowing what might happen. Merchants are in groups, so they might refuse to give you money; after all, orders can be canceled three times a day, and the maximum cost is just not receiving USDT that day. (3) Hedging Alternative: Long BTC or other assets (non-intuitive hedging). Why long BTC? Historically, every major de-anchoring of BTC has been followed by a rise. Logic: In early stages of “confidence transfer,” large funds shift from stablecoins to mainstream crypto assets. Risk control: Do not gamble everything; hedge with part of your position. Set a time window (e.g., 24–72 hours) to observe if a “rise → pullback” trend appears. (4) Re-anchoring: Bottom-fishing USDT + reverse short BTC signals: Tether official statement or market recovery signs, narrowing C2C price spread, perpetual contract basis returning to normal. Action: Close USDT short positions, buy back USDT. Close BTC long positions and lightly short to catch the pullback. Harvest note: Do not wait until everything fully reverts to close—liquidity and slippage will eat into profits. III. Technical and Channel Requirements (You Must Have) Ability to trade USDT/USD or equivalent shorting via exchanges or contracts. Contact C2C channels and merchants (if doing spot selling). Overseas/offshore redemption channels (if doing cross-border arbitrage). Automated alerts or quick manual response capability. Sufficient funds and a clear position management plan. IV. Common Practical Failure Modes (Avoid) Failure to place orders in time, being snatched by high-frequency arbitrage bots. Temporary exchange chain breaks or suspension of trading pairs. BTC not rising during de-anchoring but crashing instead (rare but deadly scenario). C2C merchant refusal to pay or order cancellations. Each failure mode can have hedging or withdrawal plans set in advance; the key is to predefine them. V. Simplified Version for Beginners If you don’t want to handle high complexity, you can do a more conservative two-step version: see signs → convert part of USDT into fiat and exit. Looking back over the past few years, I recommend a 5-year horizon; if it’s worth it, keep playing, but be more cautious. If you’ve been unprofitable all along, it’s not worth it—better to leave. Once the government starts strict enforcement, and if you don’t plan to go all-in physically, the probability of losses increases. Some platforms may also run away after seeing fees are hard to earn. Also, cautiously reduce leverage positions and maintain liquidity. When the situation stabilizes, consider gradually replenishing positions. ‘One Fish Four Eats’ sounds impressive, but only those who understand signals and have access channels can truly execute it. You can learn to judge, but don’t blindly hold large positions.