#美联储降息政策 The rate cut expectations have been largely priced in, but the market's ability to digest good news seems to be weakening.

Looking at the data: after the Federal Reserve's third rate cut, Asian stocks followed the rally, and US Bitcoin ETF net inflows reached $224 million, indicating that demand is still there on paper. However, the price cannot hold above 94K, which clearly shows the problem—structural selling pressure has indeed exceeded incremental demand.

There are two key signals: first, technical indicators have improved, with the 200-day moving average turning positive, which is a positive sign. The convergence of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages confirms the short-term bullish momentum is recovering; second, support levels are being gradually eroded, from 94K to 88.5K and then to 85K—this is a typical range-bound downward oscillation.

My judgment is that the bearish factors have already been priced in, but panic selling has not been fully cleared. If Powell does not signal any new hawkish stance later, the logic of improving financial conditions remains valid, leaving room for a subsequent rebound. However, for now, we need to wait and see how the price performs at the support levels. If it stabilizes at 88.5K, the credibility of a rebound will increase. In the short term, attention should be paid to large on-chain movements; now is not the time to chase the rally.