#数字资产市场动态 The Federal Reserve's Contradictory Moves: Pumping Liquidity or Draining It? Bitcoin struggles around $86,000, is there still a Christmas rally?

To be honest, the Fed's operational logic is ridiculously chaotic. On December 22 alone, they injected $6.8 billion, totaling $38 billion in liquidity over ten days, yet the crypto and stock markets show no signs of recovery.

Wall Street traders privately complain that this is more absurd than opening both long and short positions simultaneously—ending QT to pump liquidity, then using reverse repos to drain it. On December 18, overnight reverse repos soared directly to $10.361 billion. This money isn't flowing into the real economy; it's just filling a hole.

Where's the problem? The US debt black hole is right there. Three months of accumulating $700 billion in new debt has directly drained market liquidity. Interbank borrowing rates skyrocket. Small businesses want financing? It's as hard as climbing a mountain.

Interestingly, all this money has flowed into the financial markets—S&P 500 hitting new highs, gold rising over 60% this year. What about ordinary people? Their wages have fallen for three months straight.

$BTC's situation is even more awkward. It’s stuck around $86,000, swinging back and forth. The Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 25, signaling extreme fear. On-chain data is even more heartbreaking: long-term holders are steadily selling off. The $300 billion of dormant Bitcoin this year has become active again, and the BTC spot ETF is also experiencing net outflows.

There's another heavy blow—the Bank of Japan raised interest rates to a 30-year high of 0.75%. Historical experience suggests this usually causes $BTC to retrace about 15%.

But don’t be too pessimistic. There are $270 billion in stablecoins (USDT accounts for $16 billion), and the Fed's reverse repo scale has fallen to a low of $3.047 billion. These are potential ammunition. But honestly, in an environment where Fed policies are contradictory, a Christmas rally with a big surge like previous years is unlikely. Traditional rules are no longer very effective.

Want to catch the bottom? Just watch two data points: the reserve requirement ratio and reverse repo balance. When these two shift, the market might turn around.