Recently, there has been a dramatic shift in the competition landscape for the Federal Reserve Chair candidates. The most favored White House advisor, Haskett, has seen his support plummet from over 80% to 41%. He hasn't been quiet lately either, openly criticizing "the Fed's obvious lag in cutting interest rates," which somewhat seems like an attempt to boost his own profile.

Now, the three-way race is quite interesting:

**Kevin Waugh** has become the new frontrunner, receiving an explicit endorsement from Trump, with his nomination probability soaring to 47%. His background appears to align best with the White House's preferences.

**Haskett**, although once leading, has suffered due to his close ties with the White House. Wall Street fears losing the Fed's independence and worries that decision-making could become politicized.

**Waller** is the dark horse in this competition. He represents a professional stance and has the support of 81% of corporate executives—an impressive figure.

Most institutions believe that regardless of who ultimately takes the chair, there will likely be about three interest rate cuts by 2026. The real turning point depends on whether the new chair will follow the president's quick easing or uphold the Fed's independence. This choice will directly influence the market's future direction.

What do you think? Will Trump ultimately favor someone who is obedient, or a true professional?