Dear traders, you've probably all seen this phenomenon—Wall Street analysts say one thing publicly and report something entirely different privately. Take a well-known analyst, for example: publicly shouting "Bitcoin will hit a new high in January next year," while privately sending reports to institutional clients stating "a deep correction may occur in the first half of 2026." What's really going on here?

Honestly, when I first saw this contradictory viewpoint, I was a bit confused. How can one person be bullish and bearish at the same time? Isn't that self-contradictory? But after thinking it through carefully, it seems there might be some logic behind it.

**The套路 of public statements**

Analysts’ statements on media and social platforms are mainly aimed at retail investors and the general public. These narratives tend to be quite absolute and aggressive, easily sparking topics and discussions. Views like Bitcoin reaching $1 million or Ethereum surging past $20,000 definitely attract attention and can serve as a "market indicator" for many. This is driven by the dissemination purpose—calm and moderate opinions rarely go viral, while extreme ones hit trending.

**The真心话 in internal reports**

In contrast, internal reports for institutional clients and fund managers are different. These documents focus on real interests and cannot be misleading. They objectively analyze risks and highlight potential adjustment zones—for example, BTC pulling back to around $60,000, or ETH possibly dipping below $2000. This reflects responsibility and professional integrity.

**The logic of two systems**

From another perspective, these two sets of statements actually reflect different time horizons and audience needs. Public comments target long-term trends—it's true that Bitcoin might reach new highs within a certain cycle. But when it comes to recent volatility and short-term corrections, that’s another story. Institutional investors can't rely solely on long-term narratives; they care more about how to avoid pitfalls and manage risks during the process.

So, strictly speaking, this isn't "split personality," but rather a difference based on scenarios and information asymmetry. The media discusses grand narratives, while reports focus on specific figures. One is about the big picture, the other about operational details.

**What should retail investors do?**

The problem is, retail investors usually only receive those public statements. No one shares internal reports with us. So what we see is always the most optimistic side from analysts, leaving us unprepared when market corrections actually happen.

This requires us to be more cautious. Don't blindly trust any single analysis, and definitely don't treat analysts’ calls as trading guides. Learn to understand the market from different sources and perspectives. Why do institutions prepare two sets of reports? Because the market itself is full of uncertainties.

Crypto markets are volatile, and information asymmetry is normal. Learning to identify noise and understand true intentions is key to survival in this market. Don’t be fooled by superficial prosperity—look behind the data to see the real truth.