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Year-end holiday window is about to open, and major global markets are gradually entering a holiday mode, but the strong momentum in gold shows no signs of weakening.
Speaking of this wave of gold price increases, it cannot be explained by short-term capital speculation. The real driving force is the ongoing restructuring of the global monetary credit system. Central banks around the world are increasing their gold reserves to reduce exchange rate risks, which forms a solid strategic demand baseline for gold prices. On the other hand, the market is particularly optimistic that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates, which directly lowers the cost of holding non-yielding assets, making safe-haven assets like gold even more attractive.
Additionally, with the recurring geopolitical tensions and uncertainties in economic recovery, risk aversion sentiment continues to push gold prices higher in waves. From the supply side, gold mine production growth is limited, while demand from emerging industries such as chips and manufacturing is rising, providing strong support from supply and demand. These factors, combined, even break the traditional inverse relationship between gold and US Treasury yields, forming a structural bull market driven by central bank gold purchases and market sentiment.
Before the holiday, some short-term funds did take profits and exited, causing a minor pullback in gold prices, but this is just a small episode within a strong trend. Overnight, gold stabilized around 4480. From a technical perspective, there is still strength to challenge the key resistance levels at 4550 and even 4600 in the short term. When trading, do not be overly sensitive to these fluctuations; following the trend and maintaining a bullish outlook is the key. Currently, there are no clear signals of a phase correction.
Practical trading advice is to look for opportunities to go long in the 4400-4430 range, capturing the trend at this support zone. Pay close attention to whether the support around 4445-4455 remains effective, and watch for resistance at 4550. Proper risk management should be in place near these levels to prevent sudden market movements.