Taiwan stocks charge towards 17,000! Rate cut expectations + Tech Stocks ignite, capital rotation triggers new heights

Taiwan stocks performed strongly today, surging to 27,063 points and officially re-entering the “17,000” level, with a single-day increase of 151 points. Behind this rally is the easing of U.S. economic data weakening expectations of rate hikes and the capital rotation led by technology stocks, with global market risk appetite clearly improving.

Easing Expectations Rise, Capital Party Ready to Launch

The latest U.S. economic data injects upward momentum into the market. November consumer confidence index unexpectedly fell to 88.7, the largest decline in nearly 7 months. September retail sales increased by only 0.2% month-over-month, both below market expectations. These weak signals reinforce market expectations of the Federal Reserve cutting rates earlier. Meanwhile, White House Economic Advisor Hassett is seen as a top candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair. If he takes office, the market anticipates a significant rate cut cycle next year. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has fallen below 4%, hitting a one-month low.

International funds are thus accelerating their shift into risk assets. The four major U.S. stock indices all closed in the green, with the Dow Jones soaring over 660 points to lead the gains, prompting Taiwan stocks to follow and surge.

Opportunities in Tech Stock Differentiation, Supply Chain Benefits

Interesting differentiation phenomena are emerging in the AI sector. Nvidia, despite a nearly 3% drop due to news of AI chip supply agreements with Google and Meta, saw all five major U.S. tech giants close higher, with Meta up 3.78% and Alphabet up 1.53%. Healthcare and consumer stocks also rallied to support the market.

Taiwan tech stocks surged accordingly, with TSMC opening up 15 NT dollars to return to a high of 1430 NT dollars, and Hon Hai and Delta Electronics hitting new highs. The proportion of electronic stocks in trading volume rebounded to over 70%, becoming the mainstream. The OTC index also opened higher and stabilized above 254 points, with funds shifting clearly toward small- and mid-cap stocks. Themes such as AI servers, high-speed transmission, and green energy are actively rotating.

Technical and Capital Factors Combine to Confirm Bullish Pattern

From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 has risen for three consecutive days, forming a typical V-shaped reversal pattern, breaking through the key resistance at 6770 points. If it can hold above 6680 points, it may further challenge 6870 points.

Taiwan stocks follow the international bullish trend, with increased foreign capital repurchases. The New Taiwan dollar has strengthened, and market liquidity remains ample, giving short-term momentum for surging. On the technical defense side, if Taiwan stocks can hold above 26,800 points and volume gradually expands, the bullish pattern will be further supported.

Taiwan ADRs Show Divergence, Growth Stocks Still Favored

In terms of international market linkage, TSMC ADR remains flat, UMC ADR slightly retraced, but Chunghwa Telecom and ASE ADRs rose slightly. Capital allocation favors growth-oriented tech stocks, and this selective preference is expected to continue into the A-share market.

Market Outlook and Risk Tips

Investors can follow capital rotation trends and focus on sectors like AI, electric vehicles, and green energy. However, attention should be paid to upcoming risk events: the final outcome of Federal Reserve personnel appointments, the future direction of U.S. retail data, and whether Nvidia continues to face competitive pressure.

If the Fed signals clearer rate cuts, global liquidity will further expand, and Taiwan stocks may challenge previous highs. The year-end profit-taking rally has already begun. Grasping policy cues and technical defense will be key to seizing the surge.