Bridgewater's 2025 Strategic Shift: Gold's "Long-term Believer" Offloads Holdings, Reassessing Risk Appetite Amid "Macro Turning Point"

Author: DaiDai, MSX MaiDian

I. New Macro Paradigm: Investment Logic in the Era of Uncertainty

1. Introduction: Navigating an Unpredictable Future

The global macroeconomy is undergoing a profound structural shift. Bob Prince, Co-Chief Investment Officer of Bridgewater Associates, points out that two core drivers—the acceleration of “Modern Mercantilism” and the “Artificial Intelligence Revolution”—are reshaping market dynamics. The interaction of these paradigm shifts has created a new environment filled with “tail events” that are difficult to predict. This context poses serious challenges to traditional investment strategies and makes strategic portfolio adjustments and future adaptation urgent.

2. Analysis of Core Drivers

Based on Bob Prince’s discussion, the characteristics and impacts of these two macro forces are as follows:

(1) Acceleration of Modern Mercantilism

The core feature of “Modern Mercantilism” is that governments play an increasingly important role in enhancing national wealth and strength, prioritizing self-sufficiency and industrial policies. This trend leads to more complex geopolitical and macroeconomic environments worldwide. Interactions between countries are no longer limited to economic considerations but include strategic factors.

(2) Exponential Demand of the Artificial Intelligence Revolution

The development of AI technology faces a key contradiction: marginal performance improvements require “exponential growth” in computing power and capital investment. This dynamic not only creates unprecedented demand for related industries such as semiconductors, software, and energy but also signifies that large capital expenditures will be a key variable driving market growth and divergence.

3. Bridgewater’s Response Principles

Faced with this new macro paradigm filled with uncertainty, Prince distilled three core principles guiding Bridgewater’s current investment decisions:

(1) Diversification

In a market environment where holdings, especially in the US stock market, have reached historic concentrations, diversification is the only reliable response to unpredictability. Its goal is to ensure that regardless of unforeseen events, the portfolio will not suffer severe damage.

(2) Agility

As unknown macro factors become clearer (“as the unknown becomes known”), investment strategies must be able to quickly adapt and adjust. Agility means proactively responding to new information and changing patterns rather than sticking to old judgments.

(3) Healthy Degree of Paranoia

In markets full of uncertainty, maintaining vigilance and avoiding overconfidence are crucial. This entails holding a healthy skepticism toward market expectations, especially those that seem overly optimistic or linear extrapolations.

Based on this macro paradigm judgment, Bridgewater has made profound strategic adjustments to its portfolio to better navigate future risks and opportunities.

II. Portfolio Reallocation: Strategic Shift in Q3 2025

1. Introduction: Strategic Intent from Data

The 13F filing for Q3 2025 (as of September 30, 2025) reveals a decisive rotation in Bridgewater’s portfolio. Data shows that Bridgewater is shifting from a defensive stance of recent years to a more active “seeking returns” posture.

2. Major Reductions and Liquidations: Avoiding Concentration Risks

According to data from Gainify, Moomoo, and Fintel, Bridgewater executed large-scale reductions and liquidations in Q3 to reduce concentration risk:

(1) Significant Cut in the “Big Seven” Tech Giants

Bridgewater sharply reduced exposure to certain tech giants, removing over $2 billion in combined positions, including:

• NVIDIA (NVDA): Reduced by 65.28%, approximately 4.64 million shares, ending holdings at about 2.47 million shares, with a market value of roughly $298 million. (Note: This was one of the largest single reductions this quarter, indicating concerns about short-term crowdedness in chip stocks.)
• Microsoft (MSFT): Reduced by 36.03%, about 330,000 shares, ending at approximately 586,000 shares, with a market value of about $252 million.
• Alphabet (GOOGL): Reduced by 52.61%, about 2.32 million shares, ending at about 2.09 million shares, with a market value of roughly $346 million.
• Meta Platforms (META): Reduced by 48.34%, about 310,000 shares, ending at about 330,000 shares, with a market value of approximately $189 million.

This move indicates that after significant gains and valuation increases in these giants, Bridgewater chose to proactively reduce exposure in crowded trades.

(2) Complete Exit from “Gold” and “Emerging Markets”

Most notably, Bridgewater fully liquidated its position in SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), signaling a move away from traditional macro hedging tools. Simultaneously, it nearly completely exited emerging markets, with its iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG) holdings decreasing by 93%. These actions send a strong signal: capital is withdrawing from defensive and high-uncertainty sectors toward markets with clearer fundamentals.

)# 3. Core Additions and Positioning: Increasing US Market Breadth and Select Tech Value Chains

While reducing positions, Bridgewater redeployed funds into the US market and specific tech sectors, reflecting an optimistic risk-reward outlook.

(1) Increased Holdings in US Large-Cap ETF

Bridgewater invested heavily in iShares Core S&P 500 ETF ###IVV(, significantly boosting its weight.

iShares Core S&P 500 ETF )IVV(: Added about 1.74 million shares (+75%), ending with 4.05 million shares, with a market value of approximately $2.71 billion.

Note: IVV and SPY have become structural pillars of its portfolio. The over $1.1 billion capital injection underscores renewed emphasis on US market breadth.

(2) Strategic Positioning in Specific Tech Sectors

Contrasting with the reduction in high-valuation tech giants, Bridgewater increased or initiated positions in companies with clear long-term fundamentals and reasonable valuations, mainly in software, payments, and semiconductor supply chains:

• Lam Research )LRCX(: Increased by about 1.83 million shares (+111%), doubling its holdings to approximately 3.46 million shares, with a market value of about $464 million.
• Adobe )ADBE(: Increased by about 533,000 shares (+73%), ending at 1.26 million shares, with a market value of roughly $445 million.
• Workday )WDAY(: Increased by 132%, with holdings around 1.04 million shares, valued at about $251 million.
• Mastercard )MA(: Increased by 190%, with about 366,000 shares, valued at approximately $208 million.

This indicates that Bridgewater is not abandoning tech stocks but shifting capital from sentiment-driven consumer giants to semiconductor equipment and enterprise software firms playing roles in the AI revolution.

(3) Focus on Newly Listed Companies

Bridgewater also initiated positions in recently listed platform companies, showing ongoing exploration of new growth points:

• Reddit )RDDT(: New position, bought about 617,000 shares, with a market value of roughly $142 million.
• Robinhood )HOOD(: New position, bought about 808,000 shares, with a market value of approximately $98 million.

) III. Decoding the Gold Mystery: The Battle Between Long-term Belief and Tactical Adjustment

1. Introduction: Apparent Contradictions in Decision-Making

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater, has long been a staunch supporter of gold. However, in Q3 2025, Bridgewater completely liquidated its gold ETF holdings. This “apparent contradiction” is not a denial of long-term faith but more likely a tactical adjustment based on current environment.

2. Dalio’s Philosophy on Gold

According to information from TradingKey and Motley Fool, Dalio’s gold investment philosophy is rooted in his understanding of macro cycles.

(1) Ultimate Hedge Asset

Dalio believes gold is a key hedge against currency devaluation and declining institutional trust, and is the only asset that does not rely on any counterparty commitments.

(2) Strategic Allocation Advice

He has recommended at the Greenwich Economic Forum that during periods of increased market stress, gold allocation should be increased to 10–15%, and he explicitly states that zero or low gold allocation is a “strategic mistake.”

3. Rationale for Tactical Exit

Combining analysis from Gainify, the logic behind Bridgewater’s liquidation of gold can be understood from its shifting risk appetite.

(1) Change in Risk Appetite

Releasing gold exposure signals that Bridgewater is shifting from defensive store-of-value to more active equity deployment.

(2) Marginal Change in Hedge Value

In the current environment, Bridgewater may believe that zero-yield gold’s hedging value no longer justifies opportunity costs, and US equities and selected tech sectors offer better risk-adjusted returns.

IV. Looking Ahead: Seeking Balance Amid Uncertainty

1. Introduction: New Balance Under the New Macro Paradigm

Bridgewater’s 2025 strategy is not simply bullish or bearish but involves constructing more resilient portfolios to adapt to macro turning points, acknowledging unpredictability.

2. Internal Logic of the Strategy

(1) Using Breadth Instead of Traditional Hedging

Increasing holdings in S&P 500 ETFs is not only a bullish stance on the US market but also replaces single assets (like gold) with market breadth for risk diversification.

(2) Maintaining Agility in Transformation

In the AI wave, Bridgewater chooses fundamentally clearer and reasonably valued tech stocks to respond to the dynamic process of “unknown becoming known.”

(3) Upholding the “All Weather” Philosophy

The current adjustments are a dynamic practice of Bridgewater’s “All Weather” (全天候) philosophy under the new macro paradigm, aiming to maintain portfolio balance across different scenarios rather than sacrificing upside for sole defense.

In summary, Bridgewater’s 2025 investment strategy is an active evolution: abandoning old equilibrium anchors in uncertainty, and instead building new resilience through broader diversification and sharper agility.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice.