Metal hits new high, oil prices soar! US stocks continue to rise,迎ing the Christmas rally, with futures settlement day led by Tech Stocks—A panoramic scan of the financial markets

Commodity markets rally across the board, with precious metals and energy leading the gains

Yesterday, global commodity markets experienced a rare synchronized rally. Driven by multiple factors including escalating geopolitical tensions, the Fed’s easing expectations, and the US dollar’s pressure, the metals market became the focus. Gold surged 2.43% to break through the $4,400 mark, reaching a high of $4,449; silver’s rally was even more aggressive, rising 2.82% to $69.44, close to the psychological $70 level.

In the industrial metals sector, London copper futures briefly rose to $11,996.18 per ton, up 1.01%; in precious metals, spot palladium broke its three-year high, reaching $1,800.85 per ounce, a gain of 4.86%; spot platinum also hit a new high, reaching $2,096.81 per ounce, up 6.07%.

The energy market was equally active. Due to no significant breakthroughs in peace negotiations between Ukraine and the US, geopolitical risk premiums remained, with WTI crude oil at $57.95 per barrel, up 2.49%.

US stock indices rise for the third consecutive day, futures expiry boosts tech stocks

As Christmas approaches, market risk appetite has improved. The three major US indices rose for the third straight day—Dow Jones up 0.47%, S&P 500 up 0.64%, Nasdaq Composite up 0.52%. The VIX fear index dropped sharply by 5.5%, hitting a new low in over a year, indicating a clear improvement in market sentiment.

Futures expiry further fueled the rally in tech stocks. Chip leader Nvidia(Nvidia) rose 1.5%, electric vehicle manufacturer Tesla(Tesla) gained 1.6%, database software company Oracle(Oracle) rebounded 3.3%, and memory chip maker Micron(Micron) surged 4%. The China Golden Dragon Index also increased by 0.58%.

In contrast, European markets underperformed. UK FTSE 100 fell 0.32%, France CAC 40 declined 0.37%, Germany DAX 30 dipped slightly by 0.02%, showing a consolidating trend overall.

Crypto markets remain stable amid macro policy headwinds

Crypto markets continued their recent trend. Bitcoin dipped slightly by 0.06% in 24 hours, currently at $87.61K; Ethereum rose 0.25% in the same period, at $2.94K. In Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Index futures closed at 25,909 points, up 108 points from yesterday’s close of 25,801, with a trading volume of 10,904 contracts; the China Index futures closed at 8,976 points.

In the bond market, the US 10-year Treasury yield is around 4.16%, up 2 basis points from the previous trading day. In the forex market, the US dollar index fell 0.48% to 98.24, USD/JPY declined 0.44%, and EUR/USD rose 0.45%.

Fed officials signal dovish stance, global reserve structure shifts

Fed Governor Stephen Miran recently stated that if the Fed does not continue to cut rates next year, it could trigger recession risks. He emphasized that rising unemployment should serve as a catalyst for Fed officials to turn dovish. This comment further reinforced market expectations of rate cuts in 2025.

Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki issued the most severe warning to speculators to date, stating that the Bank of Japan and US authorities have reached a consensus on intervention, and will take “bold action” against currency fluctuations inconsistent with fundamentals.

IMF latest data shows that in Q3, the US dollar’s share of global reserves declined to 56.92%, down 0.16 percentage points quarter-over-quarter. Meanwhile, the euro’s share increased slightly to 20.33%, and the yen’s share rose to 5.82%, reflecting ongoing diversification of global reserve currencies.

Alphabet commits $4.75 billion to AI expansion, energy supply constraints pose challenges

Google parent Alphabet announced an agreement to acquire US clean energy developer Intersect Power for $4.75 billion in cash. Intersect owns $15 billion worth of operational and under-construction assets, with an expected total capacity of about 10.8 GW by 2028, more than 20 times the power output of Hoover Dam, earning it the nickname “Disney of energy” in the US.

Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai stated that this move will help expand capacity and reimagine energy solutions. As generative AI(AI) drives up electricity demand, the US power grid faces increasing pressure, prompting major tech companies to boost investments in energy firms.

On the other hand, the US government halted offshore wind projects off Virginia and four other East Coast sites, including Vineyard Wind 1 in Massachusetts, Revolution Wind in Rhode Island, Sunrise Wind in New England, and Empire Wind 1 off Long Island. This move dealt a heavy blow to the wind power industry, with Dominion Energy(D.US), responsible for the Virginia project, seeing its stock drop over 5%.

Chip supply landscape remains delicate, geopolitical factors dominate

Reuters reports that US chip giant Nvidia(Nvidia) has informed Chinese customers of plans to start shipping H200 AI chips to China before Lunar New Year, with an estimated shipment of 5,000 to 10,000 chip modules (equivalent to 40,000 to 80,000 H200 chips), and will begin accepting new capacity orders from Q2 2026. However, Beijing has yet to approve any H200 procurement, and the entire plan remains uncertain until official government approval is granted.

Ukrainian President Zelensky confirmed that negotiations with the US in Miami have concluded, and the delegation has returned to Ukraine. All key work on the 20-point “peace plan” draft has been completed, but no breakthroughs were achieved. Meanwhile, the US continues to pressure Venezuela, seeking to seize the third oil tanker entering or leaving Venezuela to cut off Maduro’s main revenue source. Industry warns that if Venezuela cannot export oil, PDVSA may be forced to shut down oil wells.

Today’s economic calendar overview

The Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting; Canada will publish October GDP monthly rate and monetary policy minutes; in the US, the preliminary Q3 real GDP annualized quarter-over-quarter, personal consumption expenditures (PCE) core price index quarter-over-quarter, and October durable goods orders monthly rate will be released, along with November industrial production, December consumer confidence index, and Richmond Fed manufacturing index. The API weekly crude oil inventory report for the week ending December 19 will also be announced today.