#通胀与经济增长 The Federal Reserve just announced a rate cut, and everyone is celebrating, but I think this situation is a bit complicated. On the surface, a rate cut is a positive signal, theoretically supporting asset prices, but the underlying issues are quite painful.

A weak labor market is the reason for the rate cut, but it also indicates sluggish economic growth, which is not a good sign. Even more concerning, consumers are now heavily in debt—credit card debt has surpassed $1.2 trillion, with an average interest rate exceeding 20%. This means many people are already overdrawing their future, and the rate cut offers limited help to them.

Moreover, inflation remains between 2.5% and 2.7%, still above the 2% target, indicating that there isn't much room for further rate cuts. The unemployment rate is approaching a three-year high, while voluntary resignation rates are at a record low. Putting these data points together, it all boils down to one message: economic growth is weak, and consumers are becoming increasingly anxious.

For the crypto market, although asset prices are supported in this environment, volatility will also be high. The positive effects of the rate cut might be offset by pessimistic expectations of an economic recession, leading to sharp market shocks. Instead of blindly bullish, it's better to cautiously observe upcoming employment data and CPI trends.