#美联储回购协议计划 2025-12-25 Bitcoin Short-Term Technical Analysis (09:20, UTC+8)

Today BTC is hovering around 87,500 yuan. Liquidity during holidays is indeed weak; both bulls and bears should be cautious.

🎯 Market Analysis Approach

The daily chart shows a slightly bearish tendency, with price oscillating between 86,500 and 88,500. Before a volume-driven breakout, rather than chasing rallies or panicking on dips, it’s better to buy high and sell low within this range. The key is to control position size and stop-losses — that’s really important.

📍 Key Levels

Looking downward, 86,500 is a strong intraday support. Below that, 85,000 is the critical support/resistance line; if it breaks, the price might drop directly to 83,500. On the upside, 88,500 faces intraday resistance, with 89,600 and 90,500 as strong barriers. The 90,500 level is particularly crucial; whether it can hold determines if we can see 93,000.

📊 How Different Timeframes Are Moving

Daily: The 20-day and 50-day moving averages are in a bearish alignment, MACD remains in the negative zone, and RSI is around 42 with no significant divergence signals — bears have a slight advantage.

4-Hour: Bollinger Bands are tightening, with the price oscillating near the middle band; KDJ indicator is flat at the bottom, and volume shows no signs of picking up. Short-term, it’s a phase of repeated oscillation.

2-Hour: Short-term moving averages are tangled, MACD is fluctuating around the zero line, and the trend is unclear — ideal for quick short-term entries and exits.

⚙ How to Trade

**1. Buy Low and Sell High Strategy**: You can open small long positions around 86,500 to 87,000, with a stop-loss at 86,000, targeting 88,200 to 88,500; conversely, around 88,500 to 89,000, try small short positions with a stop-loss at 89,600, aiming to bring the position back to 87,000–87,500.

**2. Breakout Follow-up Strategy**: If volume pushes BTC above 87,600 and it holds above 89,000 on a pullback, go long with a stop-loss at 86,500 and target 90,500; on the flip side, if it drops below 86,000 and rebounds to 86,500, consider shorting with a stop-loss at 87,000, aiming to hold around 85,000.

**3. Risk Management Rule**: During such low liquidity periods like Christmas, never allocate more than 30% of your capital, and keep individual stop-losses within 2%. Avoid overnight heavy positions without clear breakout signals.

⚠ What to Watch Out For

When liquidity is thin, price can be easily manipulated with sudden spikes; avoid market orders. The $2.4 billion options settlement this Friday could cause increased volatility. If 85,000 really drops, expect a quick dip to 83,500–84,500. Conversely, if 90,500 breaks with volume, it could open the path toward 93,000.