The surface appears calm, but undercurrents are surging. Bitcoin is continuously tearing at the $87,000 level, with trading volume sluggish. Everyone can feel this strange balance—bulls and bears are sharpening their swords in the options market, preparing for an ultimate showdown.

The critical moment is approaching. On December 26, a total of $23 billion worth of Bitcoin options contracts will expire, accounting for more than half of the open interest on mainstream derivatives platforms. Coincidentally, this day also coincides with the Christmas holiday, when market liquidity is already thin, and the impact of large trades will be amplified infinitely. Do you remember the price frenzy of over $130 billion within an hour last week? That was a fierce battle between bulls and bears, with one liquidation after another.

Data tells the truth. Implied volatility has risen to nearly 45%, and the options skew remains stable around -5%. What is the market betting on? It’s obvious to anyone—big money has long been defending against downside risk. Since the peak of over $126,000 in October, Bitcoin has already fallen nearly 30%. How fragile is market sentiment? It’s at a level where a single straw can break the camel’s back.

Smart money’s positioning was completed long ago. The traps they set in the options market are hard for ordinary investors to detect. This options expiration event is not only at a record high scale but also comes at a bad time—year-end, holidays, low liquidity—creating the perfect storm. How it will unfold depends on this battle.