Recently, those paying close attention to the Federal Reserve's moves should have felt the shift in atmosphere. The data is in front of us—at the January FOMC meeting, the probability of pausing rate cuts has already surged to 86%, which is basically a done deal. Investors are mentally preparing for this "hawkish pause."

The logic behind this is actually quite straightforward. Economic data has been performing well, inflation pressures are easing, and policymakers have more reasons to hold steady. In the short term, borrowing costs will definitely stay high, and liquidity won't loosen immediately; the market's sense of "water shortage" will continue to persist.

For risk assets and the crypto market, this essentially means a new round of stress testing is coming. Will traditional finance adjust accordingly? Will cryptocurrencies fall along with it or play a separate game? No one can say for sure. But one thing is certain: if liquidity remains tight, short-term volatility is inevitable.

On the other hand, this kind of environment can actually be an opportunity. When most people are on the sidelines, savvy investors are already preparing for the next easing cycle. Watching on-chain data and market sentiment shifts often reveals some clues.

At this stage, what’s needed are two words: patience. You need to see the trend clearly and stay flexible. The truly valuable opportunities usually hide in moments when everyone is in agreement.