#宏观经济影响 Recently, the recent macro changes are really worth pondering. On the surface, it seems that ETF outflows of 4 billion and Bitcoin falling from 125,000 to 80,000 easily lead to the conclusion of "institutional panic retreat." However, digging deeper into the data reveals that this is actually a systematic Close Position of basis Arbitrage trades, rather than a flight of long-term allocated funds. Fidelity and BlackRock have continued net inflows during the net outflow phase, while the real dumping comes from those leveraged arbitrage teams forced to stop loss as the 30-day annualized basis dropped from 6.6% to 4.4%.

What's more interesting is the macro level. Trump is rewriting the Federal Reserve system at a pace much faster than expected—it's not just a simple change of chairperson, but rather a forceful reclaiming of the long-term interest rates and liquidity pricing power from the central bank back to the Treasury. The term premium is being compressed, the duration of U.S. Treasuries is being shortened, and fiscal tools are gradually replacing monetary tools... The old era of central bank dominance is loosening, and a new fiscal dominance pattern is taking shape.

For Bitcoin, this is both an opportunity and a test. Short-term liquidity improvements will provide price support, but in the medium to long term, it still needs to wait for the new monetary system framework to truly stabilize. The market in the coming months will be very chaotic, but this chaos itself is precisely a manifestation of system reconstruction—during this phase, traditional logic often fails. Therefore, the question now is not 'who to follow,' but 'how to follow'—those traders who can flexibly adjust their positions and adapt to high volatility may be more worthy of attention.