#宏观经济影响 The recent macro drama is really a bit extreme. Trump is restructuring the power system of the Fed, the independence of the Central Bank is being weakened, and the Treasury is gradually taking over monetary authority – this matter is far more complex than just whether to raise or lower interest rates.

On the surface, it seems that $4 billion has flowed out of ETFs, and many people are shouting that institutions are fleeing, but a closer look at the data reveals that this is not a panic sell-off at all, but rather a forced liquidation of basis arbitrage positions. Grayscale accounted for 53% of the redemptions, while allocation-focused institutions like Fidelity and BlackRock are still seeing net inflows. This is akin to the liquidation of leveraged arbitrage, not a true retreat.

On the other hand, Saylor has increased his position by 106,000 BTC in one go, and Tom Lee has bought $429 million in ETH. These two clearly do not think now is the time to run.

The key is that when the era of fiscal dominance truly arrives, long-term interest rates and liquidity structures will be redefined. The short-term market will appear particularly chaotic, but this is just the growing pains of a power redistribution. Bitcoin will not become the main battleground, but improvements in liquidity will provide price support, and the rest is just waiting for the new system to become truly clear. The market conditions in the next few months will likely emerge from this chaos of system rewriting.