#美联储利率决议 Having looked at the latest market expectations, the cumulative interest rate cut of less than 75BP by the end of 2026 is a number worth following. The underlying logic is very clear: the Fed will indeed cut interest rates at this meeting, but with a clearly hawkish tone, and then it is likely to remain on hold.

The key signal is that the momentum of the US economy remains resilient, and the inflation and employment data do not support further significant easing. This means that the market's previous expectations for a rate-cutting cycle may have been overly optimistic. The impact on the on-chain funding situation is substantial—if the room for rate cuts is compressed, the dollar liquidity environment will be tighter than expected, which will directly reflect in the inflow and outflow behavior of large funds.

Recently, several signals need to be closely followed: first, the position changes of institutional whales after the adjustment of interest rate expectations; second, whether there is a turning point in the inflow and outflow of stablecoins. The period before and after the interest rate decision is usually a window for the repricing of funds, and on-chain contract data often reflects the true expectations of institutions in advance. It is recommended to pay close attention to large transfers and the movements of exchange cold wallets.