#美联储政策 In this year's 7 FOMC meetings, Bitcoin has only risen once, and this data deserves some serious contemplation.

I have seen too many people holding onto the mantra "buy the dip when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates", and what happened? The policy came out, and the coin price not only did not rise, but instead plummeted. Why? Because the market had already fully digested the expectations. The FOMC meeting has always been like this — the real opportunities are not at the moment the news is released, but in the gaps of pre-gaming and post-adjustments.

The meeting is coming up again this week, and I see a bunch of people have already started betting on "good news". Don't let this logic trap you. History tells us that when everyone is waiting for the "good news to materialize", it often becomes the night before the "good news turns into bad news that crashes the market". The big funds have already positioned themselves earlier, while retail investors are still chasing the hotspots at the back, and in the end, they are just left holding the bag.

After experiencing several cycles, I learned a truth: don't bet on policies with the Federal Reserve, bet on the market's sentiment. Look at whether institutions are reducing positions before and after this meeting, and whether there are any unusual flows in on-chain data, rather than fixating on press releases to guess rises and falls. Those who have lived long enough understand that risk prevention is always more valuable than chasing profits.