1. Market Overview

According to the latest candlestick data, the current market price of ETH is 2955.63, directly taken from the most recent daily and hourly closing prices. Over the past 14 days, ETH has shown a high-level retreat trend, with a peak of 3447.44 (14 days ago high), followed by continuous adjustments, with the lowest dropping to the 2876 range. Recently, prices have been oscillating between 2950 and 3050. In terms of trading volume, the market experienced extremely high volume during trend reversals, such as a surge to 540903 around 14 days ago. However, recent daily average trading volume has decreased, with the latest day only at 144.352, indicating short-term cooling of trading activity. Market sentiment is influenced by analyst opinions and news reports. News states "Ethereum price drops below $3000—volatility about to explode?", highlighting market vigilance and psychological readiness for a trend change. Analyst "Crypto Sniper" suggests a bullish target management zone of 2853.67-3061.44, while "Golden Hand" is bearish, pointing out short-term support between 2805-2755. Overall sentiment fluctuates between bullish and bearish, with high and low swings, and the market is at a critical stage of choosing its next direction.

2. Technical Analysis
1. Support and Resistance
Based on 14-day candlestick data, key support levels have recently formed at the low of 2876 (the previous day's lowest). The 2805-2755 range is a consensus short-term strong support zone among multiple analysts. Resistance above is concentrated at recent highs, such as 2981.87, 3061.44, and higher at 3125-3170, corresponding to historical highs and retracement stagnation zones.

2. Trends and Volatility
From a daily chart perspective, ETH has been continuously retracing from the high of 3447.44. Although there have been rebounds around 3324.14 and 3237.39, the overall downward pressure remains strong. In the past 48 hours, ETH once rapidly declined from the high of around 3155, reaching a low of 2910.67. Despite some partial rebounds, it has not effectively reclaimed the 3000 level. Hourly candles show consecutive downward closes with gradually lower highs, indicating limited rebound momentum.

3. Volume Changes
The maximum single-hour volume within 48 hours occurred during sharp declines (e.g., 88432.8 around 3048.72), indicating intense buy-sell conflicts during resistance. However, recent trading volume has significantly shrunk, reflecting cautious short-term trading sentiment and increased waiting.

3. News and Policy Interpretation
Market news indicates that ETH recently broke below $3000 again, "possibly triggering a recovery wave above 2980 USD soon," reflecting market testing of lower support levels and preparing for a breakout. Regarding Bitmine holdings rising to nearly 4 million coins, this suggests institutional entry and deep capital support for the ETH ecosystem, though fluctuations in its stock price have some indirect impact. Meanwhile, capital moves by JPMorgan and Ripple reinforce the diversification and long-term value of the Ethereum ecosystem. On the policy front, no significant new regulations have been introduced; macro conditions remain stable without major bullish or bearish signals.

4. Analyst Opinions Summary
1. "Crypto Sniper" clearly states: "Bullish buy zone: 2783.13-2738.82, TP1: 2853.67, TP2: 2891.17, TP3: 2941.76, TP4: 3061.44, leverage suggested: 10X-60X," linking to the recent low of 2876, indicating a strong short-term bullish stabilization expectation.

2. "Golden Hand" states: "Entry Point (EP): 3165-3205, Take Profit (TP): 3100-3020-2940-2870, Stop Loss (SL): 3270... Short-term support at 2805-2755, resistance at 3125-3170," aligning with candlestick structures and emphasizing the validity of support at 2805-2755.

3. "Crypto Peng" notes: "ETH currently broke below the key level of 3044 in the short term... watch for a rebound in the 2811~2720 range," confirming that the current phase is mainly defensive, with key shifts around 2800-2950.

4. "Three Horse Brothers Contract Member Group" repeatedly states: "Ethereum long positions, continuous profits, take profit at 70% of positions," reflecting some confidence in long operations but with increased caution.

These opinions generally align with actual data: most analysts focus on support around 2800, with limited downside space; resistance at 3000-3060 is strong in the short term, and if bulls cannot break through, the correction will continue. Some views, like "Crypto Peng," emphasize that "recovering above the key level of 3044 would improve the structure," consistent with the hourly rebound failure observed in practice.

5. Future Trend Prediction and Trading Suggestions
Based on candlestick data and analyst opinions, ETH is currently in a weak equilibrium structure between 2950-3000. A breakdown followed by a quick retest near 2910.67 and stabilization could indicate a gradual formation of a short-term bottom. If support in the 2805-2876 range holds and recovers steadily, a short-term rebound may be initiated, targeting resistance levels at 2941.76-2960 and 3061.44. Conversely, if it breaks below 2811-2755, it may accelerate to find a bottom again. Investors are advised to operate within ranges, using the 2800-2876 support zone as a risk boundary, with strict leverage control and stop-loss placement. When rebound momentum is limited, pay close attention to the 2955-2975 level as the bullish-bearish dividing line. If volume cannot be effectively increased, upward continuation is doubtful. After stabilizing at support, aggressive traders may consider small positions for long entries, with partial profit-taking at 2940-3060. If it falls below 2800, it is recommended to wait and observe for new buying signals.

6. Risk Warning
Recent candlestick patterns show significant volatility, especially within 48 hours, ETH sharply dropped from a high of 3159.67 to 2910.67, with single-hour declines exceeding 250 points. Trading volume surged sharply during drops and then quickly contracted, indicating active high-frequency trading but strong speculative nature. If support zones cannot be maintained, further sharp declines are possible. Investors should monitor key stop-loss levels at 2876, 2805, and 2755, and pay attention to volume conditions to avoid chasing rallies or panic selling, which could lead to unnecessary losses. In summary, ETH is at a critical watershed, with risks and rewards coexisting. Trading should focus on flexible range strategies and strict risk management.