Can BTC hold steady at 104,000? What signals does the MACD golden cross release, and what three major traps should retail investors avoid?

Just now, I looked at the 1-hour K-line and found a key signal—MACD forming a golden cross below the 0 axis. This technical pattern usually indicates a potential short-term rebound, but the current formation suggests that the bullish momentum still needs confirmation. BTC is currently oscillating around the $102,000 level, which has become a focal point in the market.

The Double-Edged Sword of News

The US government shutdown crisis has come to an end. On the surface, it seems like good news, but there are many hidden variables behind it. Economic data may show gaps, and the Federal Reserve’s decision-making information sources have decreased, leading the market to call this an “information vacuum period.” Due to this uncertainty, investors are increasingly allocating to safe-haven assets, and cryptocurrencies are thus favored by capital.

BTC previously surged to $102,177, which clearly demonstrates the market’s demand for safe-haven assets. However, I remind you that behind this rapid rise, there are often risks of intense volatility. If policy expectations reverse, the market could turn around instantly, and retail investors are prone to being caught in such environments.

Opportunities and Risks in Technical Analysis Coexist

From the 1-hour chart, the MACD golden cross appears below the 0 axis, indicating that rebound momentum is accumulating, but the strength is not yet sufficient. The key resistance level is at $104,000, where a large amount of sell orders are concentrated.

If BTC can break through and stabilize above $104,000, it may then attempt to challenge $107,000. But if it gets pushed back at the resistance level, the risk of a pullback will increase. Support levels below are sequentially at $100,500 and $98,000. From a short-term perspective, it seems that the main funds are still slowly building positions, with no signs of a full-scale rally.

Three Key Points for Retail Investors

First, position control is the top priority. Do not go all-in at once; building positions gradually can effectively reduce risk. Even if you are optimistic about the future market, leave room for adjustments.

Second, setting stop-loss points is crucial. In the current environment of high volatility, pre-setting stop-loss levels can protect your capital. If the price falls below $98,000, you should exit promptly and not hold onto unrealistic hopes.

Third, strictly follow trend signals. When MACD forms a golden cross, short-term traders can consider going long in line with the trend, but be sure to execute take-profit orders near key resistance levels. Do not be greedy and wait for the perfect selling point.

Possible Evolution of the Recent Market

Based on the combination of news and technical analysis, BTC is likely to remain oscillating within the range of $100,500 to $107,000 in the near term. Breakouts require stronger catalysts, such as the release of important economic data or clear signals from policy.

In the short term, BTC may test $104,000 again and possibly reach highs near $107,000, but a one-time upward breakout is unlikely. If the attempt fails at high levels, the first support level to watch is $100,500, followed by the bottom line at $98,000.

The most common pitfall in the current market is overbuying. Investors need to stay rational, wait for clearer breakout signals before significantly increasing their positions, which is a prudent strategy.

$BTC BTCUSDT Perpetual 87,820 +0.77%