The downward trend in the cryptocurrency market may not indicate the end; opportunities are brewing.

This round of decline has indeed made crypto investors a bit uneasy. Bitcoin has fallen from the $126,000 level to around $87,660, while Ethereum has been cut in half from over $4100 to $2950, with the decline looking shocking. But if we extend the timeline and compare with historical patterns, we may find that this adjustment has not reached its limit—in fact, it hints at structural opportunities.

Has the decline already been fully absorbed? Let the data speak

Each Bitcoin cycle’s bear market performance has its clues:

• 2018 bear market: plunged 85%, market bloodbath
• 2022 bear market: decline narrowed to 75%, pain significantly eased
• Current correction: from 126K down to 87K, about 31% drop

According to the consensus of the four-year halving cycle, if the decline reaches 50-60%, it’s already at the limit. This suggests the Bitcoin bottom should be in the 60K-70K range. Having already fallen over a third, the market has digested much of the pessimism.

Ethereum’s performance is in sync: from 4100 to 2833, a 31% drop, confirming that major cryptocurrencies’ adjustments are showing results. The logic is simple—if you choose to participate in the crypto market, you must respect its rules of operation. The best entry point is always at the V-shaped reversal bottom, not chasing after the peak.

Why Ethereum deserves special attention

Ethereum’s price at 2.95K is considered by the market as a “golden pit” for a reason.

From a technical perspective: consecutive days of decline have fully released selling pressure. The 2750-2850 zone has historically been a strong support level, repeatedly stabilizing and bouncing back. On the ecosystem front, Layer2 solutions continue to iterate, DeFi ecosystems flourish, and NFT applications expand—no signs of deterioration in fundamentals.

From a capital perspective: Grayscale is reducing holdings, but institutions like BlackRock are continuously absorbing larger ETF scales. Institutional funds have never stopped flowing in; retail investors are scared off by short-term volatility. Under these conditions, smart money is quietly building positions. The next bull market’s leading cryptocurrencies and public chains will undoubtedly play a key role, and every major correction is a window of opportunity to get on board.

Three-dimensional judgment of Bitcoin’s short-term rebound logic

Regarding whether BTC will continue to weaken, the probability of a short-term rebound to the 90K-95K range is high. This judgment is based on three dimensions:

Technical: After five consecutive 15-minute candles dropping more than 2%, there have been two 15-minute candles with over 1% gains. The daily chart shows severe oversold conditions, and a technical rebound could trigger at any moment.

Sentiment: The fear and greed index has reached extreme fear territory, and market sentiment needs recovery. Retail investors are selling off in panic, while whales are using this window to accumulate. This is a cyclical capital game.

Macro: The Fed’s rate cut expectations still exist, and institutional funds continue to buy BTC spot ETFs. MicroStrategy and other listed companies are still increasing holdings. These fundamentals remain supportive.

Based on these factors, a rebound to over 90K within the next 1-2 weeks is highly probable.

Differentiated approach for mainstream and altcoins

During the sentiment recovery phase, major coins like BNB, SOL, ADA will definitely rebound. Among them, SOL is worth special attention—after dropping 90% from its high in the last cycle, it has surged 35 times this cycle, repeatedly validating the cyclical rotation pattern. Projects with real-world applications like XRP will also perform well during rebounds.

However, caution is needed in the altcoin space. During rebounds, some “shitcoins” can surge 50% or even double in a day, which looks tempting. But these tokens move extremely fast—today’s gains could be wiped out tomorrow. Whales hold large amounts of chips and shorts; their routine is: first pump to attract retail investors, then sideways consolidation to gather confidence, then dump to shake out retail, and finally buy back in during the panic sell-off. This cycle has repeatedly played out in coins like GAS, TRB, and others. Altcoins should only be tested with very small positions and absolutely not be heavily weighted.

Phased trading framework

For the current market environment, trading can be divided into two stages:

Stage 1 (Rebound and recovery phase):

• BTC can be cautiously tested with small long positions in the 8.7K-8.9K range, with stops at 8.5K
• ETH can be accumulated in batches around 2800-2850, as this is a highly favorable position
• Mainstream coins can allocate 10-20% of positions to participate in the rebound
• Altcoins should be limited to within 5%, used for speculative plays; take profits quickly

Stage 2 (Bottom-fishing phase): If BTC rebounds to over 90K and then falls back, and ETH drops back to 2500-2600, that’s the real money-making opportunity. At this point, you can allocate 50-70% of positions for heavy bottom-fishing.

Why wait until after Christmas? Because historically, there are often corrections around Christmas, and year-end institutional profit-taking can cause selling pressure. After this rebound wave completes, the true bottom will emerge, making it the best time for heavy deployment.

The ultimate rule for crypto trading

The most important rule in crypto is: ensure you survive. As long as your principal remains, opportunities will always come. But once you get liquidated, the game is truly over. This is the first principle of risk management.

Therefore, regardless of market volatility, position control, stop-loss settings, and capital allocation must come first. Those who see opportunities during panic are often disciplined and well-planned investors.

Final logical judgment

To summarize the core signals of the current market: this 31% decline aligns with historical correction patterns, leaving some room for a bottom. Short-term rebounds are highly probable. Ethereum’s ecosystem remains strong, institutional funds continue to flow in, and the real bottom will only appear after Christmas.

Remember: crises and opportunities are often separated by a single decision. When most in the crypto space are panicking, it’s actually the time to stay calm and strategically position.

Real-time market reference:

• BTC: $87.66K (+0.78%)
• ETH: $2.95K (-1.95%)