#市场触底了吗？

The bear market is not over yet; caution is needed when bottom-fishing.

Zizeng once said: “Novices die from chasing highs; veterans die from bottom-fishing.” When is the right time to bottom-fish? How to do it? It has always been the Gödel conjecture in the crypto world. Currently, after experiencing another sharp decline in the early morning, Bitcoin is reported at $86,200. Has the market bottomed out now? Is it time to “buy, buy, buy”? I believe that the bear market does not declare a bottom; the decline has only just begun. Bottom-fishing requires caution!

Technical Indicators -- The Market is in the Early Stage of a Bear Market

Last week, Little Wealth God mentioned in many articles that Bitcoin, after breaking below the 60-week moving average near 98,000, has entered a technical bear market. You can rely on the daily resistance level around 94,000 to short. The decline at this level also confirms Bitcoin’s entry into a bear market from one perspective. Another phenomenon is that recently, altcoins have become active again, indicating that funds are not optimistic about mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, and are instead shifting into altcoin speculation. Currently, the MACD histogram continues to shrink, and the difference between the fast and slow lines narrows, indicating weakening upward momentum. Combined with the narrowing of the price oscillation range, a divergence between volume and price has appeared—namely, increased volatility with decreasing trading volume, which usually signals that the market’s directional choice is near. Divergence signals frequently appear in the early stages of historical bear markets, and the current indicator state is highly similar to past decline cycles. When prices break below Fibonacci retracement levels (such as the 0.618 support), it triggers concentrated stop-loss selling. On-chain data shows that this zone is a dense area of institutional holdings; losing it leads to a shift in market sentiment toward pessimism and accelerates downward pressure. Meanwhile, the critical point of miner selling pressure has been breached, with some mining rigs entering a loss state, further amplifying supply-side pressure. Market despair has not yet appeared; many still believe a strong rebound is imminent. These are all signs of the early stage of a bear market.

Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Reappears?

Analyst Gautam Chhugani from Bernstein pointed out that this decline reflects investor anxiety over the four-year cycle pattern—this pattern has seen peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021. Perhaps the four-year cycle has no scientific basis, but it exacerbates investor panic. Many investors, believing that 2025 will repeat, sell in the market’s weakness in the fourth quarter, which to some extent creates a self-fulfilling prophecy. Many institutions also use this “script” to short aggressively, so I believe the bear market is still in its early stages rather than about to end.

Operational Strategy -- Appropriately Short, Short-term Long if Breaking Previous Lows

1. Currently, it is advisable to be cautious with bottom-fishing. You can consider adding some short positions on rebounds. However, given that the market has already declined significantly, shorting in this situation should be done with light positions. If you already hold short positions, you can continue to hold them to let profits run freely for a while.

2. When can you bottom-fish? The principle of “no break, no rise” applies. I think when the market breaks below the previous correction low of 80,000, you can attempt to bottom-fish or short-term long, with a stop loss around 77,000. For ETH, this corresponds to around 26,000, with a stop loss at about 2,500.

3. An interesting aspect of this bear market is that Bitcoin and Ethereum are declining, but altcoins are not following suit, indicating that funds have not exited the market on a large scale. Therefore, you can also allocate some altcoins to temporarily avoid risk. Priority choices include the currently hot AI sector, RWA sector, and some altcoins with strong institutional investment.

What are your thoughts on this? Feel free to leave a comment. Wishing everyone daily prosperity.