1. Market Overview The current BTC market is in a clear oscillating downward environment. Based on the provided candlestick data, the latest closing price is 88,756.2, a slight rebound from 88,172.2 the previous day but below the high from 14 days ago. The 14-day K-line data shows that BTC has been continuously retreating from a high of 94,476, with multiple rebounds unsuccessful in breaking through the 93,000 level. Additionally, there have been several volume surges over the 14-day period, such as around 92,513.4 to 92,678.8 with large trades of over 16,000 to 19,000 units, followed by a fall below the 90,000 mark, increasing market volatility, with the lowest touching 87,577.4. In the past 48 hours, the hourly chart shows oscillating downward movement, with the highest just testing 89,398.7 and the lowest dropping to 87,577.4. Volume fluctuations are obvious, with some hourly volumes exceeding a thousand coins. Overall, after a significant short-term pullback, the market has entered a high-level consolidation zone, with participant sentiment becoming more cautious. Analysts have repeatedly emphasized key support levels for defense and rebound expectations. Coupled with recent news, market trading is highly competitive, with signs of main players reducing their holdings.

2. Technical Analysis Based on the 14-day and recent 48-hour K-line details, the main technical points are as follows: 1. Support and Resistance Level Analysis The recent 14-day high occurred between 94,476 and 94,589, with current resistance concentrated around 90,000 to 90,634.5, where multiple rebounds have failed to regain. The recent low of 87,577.4 has become a critical short-term support; falling below it risks further downside. Regarding daily volume, the maximum single-day volume was 32,078.7 (on the close day of 86,286), indicating significant selling pressure at that level. Repeated dips below this can be seen as weakness. Local support on the hourly chart is around 88,074.4 to 88,428.1, while resistance levels of 88,757.4 and 89,398.7 are short-term bullish breakout targets. 2. Trend Formation BTC has been steadily declining from a high within the 14-day period, with the top gradually shifting downward. In the past five days, closing prices have shown limited rebounds (such as 88,756.2), still within a short-term downward channel. Over the past 48 hours, the price has tested the 88,600-88,800 range multiple times, with weak upward momentum. Volume spikes indicate dominant bearish sentiment. 3. Volume Analysis The 14-day K-line data show daily volumes mostly between 8,400 and 25,000, with several large volume surges during downward jumps, reflecting that main force is still exiting. Recent two-day hourly data also show multiple significant volume increases, with prices mostly facing resistance or being unable to sustain rebounds.

3. News and Policy Interpretation According to the latest news, the UK Treasury announced plans to strengthen regulation of Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market over the coming years, with specialized supervision starting in 2027. This move aims to improve transparency and protect consumers but introduces short-term uncertainty. Considering the timing of the news release, the policies have not yet caused direct negative impacts but have deepened market caution in the medium term. Additionally, events such as “Whale 1969 BTC for ETH,” “Mega whale/institution exchanging 317 BTC for 9,105 ETH,” indicate high-net-worth players are actively rebalancing and reducing BTC holdings. Combining this with the significant volatility and volume surges on the same day, it is clear that large-scale repositioning influences market selling pressure. Recent reports on Bitcoin volatility and turnover structures show that new groups are buying at lower costs than medium- and long-term investors, implying short-term support is unstable and the market is easily driven by rapid emotions. Brazilian private banking recommends minimal BTC allocation, further confirming a cautious and diversified investment mindset among mainstream investors.

4. Analyst Opinions Summary The following analyst comments are direct excerpts, aligned with market performance: - “Watch the weekly K-line after BTC’s short-term rebound; ideally, see it recover above the 112,000 key level. Otherwise, the possibility of testing the 105,000 level again increases. Today’s spot ETF shows net outflows, while large whales are heavily buying on-chain, holding all positions firmly”: Given the current maximum of only 88,757.4, clearly below the analyst’s mentioned key levels of 112,000 and 105,000, the market is in a weak rebound phase. - “BTC has now reclaimed the 112,000 level on the weekly chart; moving forward, it may consolidate briefly around 115,000 or retest that level. As long as it stays above 112,000, it has the potential to challenge 120,000 or higher”: The actual K-line data do not show prices reaching 112,000 or 115,000, so the market does not meet analyst expectations. - “If BTC sharply drops to around 98,000 and then rebounds, for a meaningful rally, it must first recover above 105,000; only then can it continue upward. Otherwise, it’s still in a downtrend”: The current price below support at 98,000 indicates the short-term bottom has not been reached. - “Once BTC hits the 105,000 level, monitor support. If a false breakdown occurs and it reclaims that level, there could be a rebound. This is a key short-term level. Below that, 98,000 becomes more distant”: Based on K-line patterns, neither 105,000 nor 98,000 has been tested, indicating short-term weakness and a continued downtrend. Overall, most analysts focus on 105,000-112,000 as key support and rebound zones. Given current closing prices and K-line trends, BTC remains distant from these zones with limited rebound strength and cautious market sentiment.

5. Trend Forecast and Trading Suggestions Combining technical K-line patterns and market news, BTC remains in a high-level consolidation with downward shifting focus in the short term. The current price of 88,756.2 has fallen into the lowest two-week consolidation range. If it cannot effectively rebound and stabilize above 89,000-90,000 in the coming days, the market may test previous lows at 87,577.4 or lower. A rapid decline with volume surge and weak rebound likely indicates further downside. Short-term supports are around 88,000 and 87,577; if these levels are broken, avoid blindly chasing longs. Resistance levels are first at 89,000-89,398, with a volume breakout potentially repairing the first technical gap. To further rebound, prices must stabilize above 90,000-90,634.5 with stable volume; otherwise, rebound space is limited. Trading strategy recommends light positions, quick buy and sell, and close attention to support failure signals.

6. Risk Warning The current market is highly volatile. The decline from the 14-day high to the current price has been significant, with large volumes accumulating during the drop. Events such as whale rebalancing, institutional repositioning, and ETF outflows trigger extreme emotions, increasing operational risks. Strict risk management is essential. If prices fall below 87,577.4, technical indicators suggest accelerated decline; strict stop-loss is advised to avoid chasing lows. No major policy easing has been observed, and market elasticity is constrained by external factors and continuous main force deleveraging. Investors should be vigilant against secondary declines and strictly adhere to risk control and position management principles.