#加密市场反弹

Crypto Market Rebound: Is it a Trend Reversal, or the Beginning of a New Narrative Rotation? #CryptoMarketRebound

This morning, waking up to a euphoric market. BTC sharply breaks through $94,500, ETH nears the $3,400 level, with the total market capitalization increasing by over 2.7% in a single day. Market sentiment is like a spark ignited, quickly recovering from silence. However, in the face of this sudden rebound, we need to stay calm and think: Is this the prelude to a new bull market, or a technical rebound within a structural adjustment?

🔍 The Driving Forces Behind the Rebound: Macro and Technical Resonance

On the surface, it appears to be driven by spontaneous buying forces. But a deeper analysis shows that recent dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, along with strong market expectations of interest rate cuts next year, provide critical macro liquidity support for risk assets (including the crypto market). Meanwhile, several mainstream coins have received strong buy support at key technical support levels (such as BTC near $90,000), forming a “macro expectation + technical support” dual resonance.

🚀 Which Tracks and Coins Are Worth Focusing On?

In addition to leading the rally with BTC and ETH, some altcoins’ performance in this rebound is highly insightful, revealing possible fund flows:

1. Modularization and Infrastructure: For example, AXL’s strong performance suggests the market’s long-term confidence in next-generation blockchain architectures (cross-chain, modular). This sector may continue to benefit from core industry technological evolutions and narratives.
2. Meme and Community Culture Coins: The activity of tokens like WIF once again proves the explosive potential of community-driven assets in high-volatility markets. These assets are suitable for high-risk tolerance traders with sharp intuition.
3. Deeply Undervalued Value Rebound: Tokens like ZEN (privacy sector) and LUNA (ecosystem rebuild), which have undergone significant corrections, often see strong rebounds with “valuation repair” properties. This indicates that we should pay attention to high-quality projects with stable fundamentals that have been unfairly sold off due to market sentiment.

💡 My Recent Trading Strategy: Steady Progress with Focus on Main Trends

In the face of the rebound, my strategy leans toward “holding core positions while tactically chasing small positions”:

· Core Logic Unchanged: I still consider BTC and ETH as the main anchors (accounting for 60% of the total portfolio). They confirmed key support levels during this rebound, and I will continue to hold without easily shorting the trend.
· Selective Participation in Altcoin Rotation: I will allocate a small portion of funds (about 20%) to sectors with sustained narrative potential, such as modularization, AI + crypto, and compliant RWA. I will choose 1-2 projects with technical breakthroughs and ecosystem progress like AXL for tactical operations, with strict stop-loss levels (e.g., -8%).
· Maintain Cash Flexibility: I will never fully deploy on the peak of the rebound. Keep at least 20% in USDT/USDC to cope with possible retracements and to seize the next clear opportunity quickly.

⚠️ Final Reminder: Beware of FOMO, Assess Your Risk Tolerance

History repeatedly proves that maintaining a bit of vigilance amid market euphoria is key to long-term survival. Although this rebound is strong, attention should be paid to whether trading volume can continue to grow, and whether there will be signals of “false prosperity,” such as mainstream coins stagnating and only small coins performing.

My core principle is: never chase coins that have risen over 30% without immediate fundamental positive news. Investment is the realization of cognition; every trade should have a clear logic, not driven by market emotion or impulsiveness.

The market script is always changing, but our discipline must remain consistent. I wish everyone can find their own alpha in this round of market.