Bitcoin Holds Steady Above $93,000: “Second Jump” Window as Technicals and Fundamentals Align

After consolidating above $93,000, Bitcoin’s market displays a “calm before the storm.” This isn’t mere price stagnation, but a sign of multiple forces reaching a subtle equilibrium at a critical level. When technical momentum, capital flows, and macro narratives align, it often signals a larger move is brewing.

Technical Analysis: “Dual-Engine” Signal from MACD and RSI

Currently, Bitcoin’s 4-hour MACD histogram has turned positive and is expanding, with the MACD lines forming a healthy “golden cross pullback” above the zero line. This typically means bullish momentum is shifting from the “initiation” to the “acceleration” stage. The RSI has rebounded from the mid-55 range to above 65, avoiding oversold risk but not yet entering the extreme overbought zone above 75, leaving ample room for price appreciation.

Key Detail: The slope of the MACD histogram matters more than its absolute value. The current 45-degree upward slope signals sustained buying rather than a pump. This kind of “slow bull” momentum buildup often supports longer-term trends better than sharp spikes.

Fundamentals: Dual Anchors of ETF Inflows and Institutional Holdings

Since mid-November, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have logged three consecutive weeks of net inflows, totaling $1.87 billion. BlackRock’s IBIT alone saw single-day net inflows topping $500 million multiple times, indicating that institutional capital is shifting from tentative to strategic allocation.

More importantly, the structure of institutional holdings is changing. 13F filings show hedge funds increased their BTC-related holdings by 37% quarter-over-quarter in Q3, with several mid-size institutions raising allocation from 2% to 5%. This “weight shift” carries more signal than new capital—it means Bitcoin is moving from an “alternative investment” to a “core allocation.”

Halving Effect’s “Delayed Impact”

The fourth halving completed in April 2024 is far from fully priced in. Historical data shows the main bull phase usually occurs 12-18 months post-halving. We are now in the “scarcity window” of supply contraction and demand expansion:

• Daily miner selling has dropped from 900 to 450 BTC, reducing monthly supply by about 13,500 BTC

• Long-term holders (LTH) now control 62% of supply, a new high since 2021

• Exchange balances keep declining, thinning spot liquidity

This “rigid supply contraction + elastic demand growth” forms Bitcoin’s strongest fundamental logic.

Macro Narrative: Rate Cut Expectations and “Trump 2.0” Policy Tailwinds

CME FedWatch shows a 71% probability the Fed will cut rates in December, and over 80% odds of a cumulative 75-100bp cut by March 2026. More importantly, a Trump administration could adopt a friendlier crypto regulatory stance—potentially repealing SAB 121 and advancing stablecoin legislation.

Policy tailwind transmission chain: Regulatory clarity → bank custody participation → accelerated institutional inflows → stablecoin issuance growth → DeFi and RWA ecosystem boom → Bitcoin’s “digital gold” value re-rated.

Bull vs Bear Forces: The Scales Are Tipping

The market currently shows “strong support, weak resistance”:

Bullish Positions:

• Over $1.2 billion in spot buy orders accumulated below $94,000 (from ETFs and institutional OTC)

• $93,000-$94,000 forms a “dense trading zone,” acting as strong support

• Option market’s put implied volatility has dropped to 55%, showing fading panic

Bearish Positions:

• Over $800 million in futures shorts above $95,000

• Technical selling at $97,000-$98,000

• $100,000 as a psychological barrier could trigger short-term profit-taking

Key Insight: Short positions are concentrated “above price,” meaning upward moves can trigger forced short covering, fueling a “short squeeze” dynamic.

Target Projections: The 94,000→97,000→100,000 Progression

If $94,000 is breached, the market enters an “acceleration zone”:

1. First target: $97,000—this is the 1.618 Fibonacci extension, overlaying the 1.5x retracement from the 2021 bull peak ($69,000) to 2022 low ($15,800). Strong technical resistance, but not insurmountable.

2. Second target: $100,000—primarily a psychological milestone. Once breached, major media coverage could trigger retail FOMO entry.

3. Ultimate scenario: If $100,000 holds, and stablecoin legislation passes alongside a dovish Fed pivot, $150,000-$180,000 before end-2026 cannot be ruled out.

Timing Window: The December 19 Bank of Japan meeting and January 2026 Fed meeting are key catalysts. If neither is surprisingly hawkish, a “Christmas–New Year rally” is possible from late December to early January.

Risk Warnings: Overbought Signals and Macro Variables Coexist

Despite bullish odds, investors must heed three main risks:

1. Technical Overbought Pullback: If RSI stays above 75 for three days, a technical pullback to the $91,000-$92,000 range is likely, offering a second entry for those who missed out.

2. Stablecoin Regulation Risk: S&P recently downgraded Tether; China’s central bank labeled stablecoins as “money laundering tools.” If US/EU tighten regulation, short-term market liquidity could be hit.

3. Macro Policy Reversal: If US November CPI beats forecasts (currently 3.1%), or the Bank of Japan hikes rates sharply in December, risk assets could see broad pullbacks.

Trading Strategy: Laddered Positioning, Antifragile Allocation

Current levels suit a “pyramid” accumulation approach:

• Base (40%): Hold spot below $93,000 as a long-term core

• Add (30%): If price pulls back to $91,500-$92,000, add to reach 70% allocation

• Flexible (20%): If $94,500 breaks, chase for $97,000 target

• Hedge (10%): Buy puts (strike $88,000) as insurance

Core Principle: Below $94,000, pullbacks are opportunities, not risks. But if $91,000 breaks with heavy volume, re-evaluate the bull thesis.

Conclusion: The Essence of a Bull Market Is “Shared Belief”

The market is at the stage where “institutions believe, retail hesitates.” Institutions are buying ETFs with real capital, while retail worries if it’s the “tail end.” Historically, true bull moves start when “most people are half-convinced.”

With technicals, fundamentals, and macro in “triple resonance,” and leverage at healthy levels (network open interest/market cap ratio at 3.2%, near historic lows), upside odds far outweigh downside risk.

Remember: In a bull market, holding matters more than timing; in choppy markets, position sizing matters more than direction. #比特币 #技术分析 #机构投资 #加密货币 #MarketAnalysis

Risk warning: Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile. The views in this article do not constitute investment advice. Make prudent decisions based on your own risk tolerance, and avoid high leverage.

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