The Kondratiev wave tells us that opportunities for wealth are hidden within the tides of the era. So here’s the question—where will the next global growth explosion point be?
After reading the McKinsey report, I broke it down into five main threads, each of which could rewrite the rules of the game for the next decade.
**First, let’s talk about computing power as the foundation.** Semiconductors, cloud services, and AI software don’t exist in isolation. Chips determine the upper limit of computing power, the cloud turns computing power into an on-demand commodity, and AI software packages these capabilities into tools. This layer is like the “new electricity”—it’s not just one industry growing, but all industries being accelerated.
**The second thread is digital penetration.** E-commerce, advertising, streaming media, gaming, plus cybersecurity—the “tax” of the digital world. The core here is the redistribution of attention and efficiency. Winners often take most of the market share, but the competition is also the most brutal.
**Next is the electrification of energy and transportation.** Electric vehicles and batteries are obvious tracks, while nuclear fission is more like a “backup solution for extreme energy demand.” This wave isn’t short on stories—it’s short on breakthroughs in hard constraints like supply chains, materials, manufacturing yield, and charging networks. Whoever can withstand these constraints will be the one to survive in the end.
**Biotech is the fourth wave.** Industrial biotechnology, weight loss drugs, and chronic disease treatments—all driven by aging populations and pressure on medical efficiency. The growth curve here isn’t linear—a single regulatory decision or clinical data outcome can change the shape of the curve. The opportunities and risks are equally significant.
**Finally, there’s the real-world implementation of hard tech.** Shared autonomous driving, robotics, modular construction, space, and future air mobility. For these things to scale, they must overcome three hurdles: safety, cost curve, and infrastructure. The market tends to “price in fantasies” here, but once the critical point is crossed, growth can become unreasonable.
My assessment is: the next wave of growth won’t come from a single super-industry, but from several foundational technologies stacking together to simultaneously push a batch of industries up the S-curve. Find the one you can participate in, and move in that direction as much as possible.
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The Kondratiev wave tells us that opportunities for wealth are hidden within the tides of the era. So here’s the question—where will the next global growth explosion point be?
After reading the McKinsey report, I broke it down into five main threads, each of which could rewrite the rules of the game for the next decade.
**First, let’s talk about computing power as the foundation.** Semiconductors, cloud services, and AI software don’t exist in isolation. Chips determine the upper limit of computing power, the cloud turns computing power into an on-demand commodity, and AI software packages these capabilities into tools. This layer is like the “new electricity”—it’s not just one industry growing, but all industries being accelerated.
**The second thread is digital penetration.** E-commerce, advertising, streaming media, gaming, plus cybersecurity—the “tax” of the digital world. The core here is the redistribution of attention and efficiency. Winners often take most of the market share, but the competition is also the most brutal.
**Next is the electrification of energy and transportation.** Electric vehicles and batteries are obvious tracks, while nuclear fission is more like a “backup solution for extreme energy demand.” This wave isn’t short on stories—it’s short on breakthroughs in hard constraints like supply chains, materials, manufacturing yield, and charging networks. Whoever can withstand these constraints will be the one to survive in the end.
**Biotech is the fourth wave.** Industrial biotechnology, weight loss drugs, and chronic disease treatments—all driven by aging populations and pressure on medical efficiency. The growth curve here isn’t linear—a single regulatory decision or clinical data outcome can change the shape of the curve. The opportunities and risks are equally significant.
**Finally, there’s the real-world implementation of hard tech.** Shared autonomous driving, robotics, modular construction, space, and future air mobility. For these things to scale, they must overcome three hurdles: safety, cost curve, and infrastructure. The market tends to “price in fantasies” here, but once the critical point is crossed, growth can become unreasonable.
My assessment is: the next wave of growth won’t come from a single super-industry, but from several foundational technologies stacking together to simultaneously push a batch of industries up the S-curve. Find the one you can participate in, and move in that direction as much as possible.